Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19
By Renyi Zhang, Yixin Li, Annie L. Zhang, Yuan Wang, M. Molina. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020
1,169 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Significance We have elucidated the transmission pathways of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by analyzing the trend and mitigation measures in the three epicenters. Our results show that the airborne transmission route is highly virulent and dominant for the spread of COVID-19. The mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic. Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the trends of the pandemic. This protective measure significantly reduces the number of infections. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public. Our work also highlights the necessity that sound science is essential in decision-making for the current and future public health pandemics. Various mitigation measures have been implemented to fight the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, including widely adopted social distancing and mandated face covering. However, assessing the effectiveness of those intervention practices hinges on the understanding of virus transmission, which remains uncertain. Here we show that airborne transmission is highly virulent and represents the dominant route to spread the disease. By analyzing the trend and mitigation measures in Wuhan, China, Italy, and New York City, from January 23 to May 9, 2020, we illustrate that the impacts of mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic. Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the pandemic trends in the three epicenters. This protective measure alone significantly reduced the number of infections, that is, by over 78,000 in Italy from April 6 to May 9 and over 66,000 in New York City from April 17 to May 9. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public. We conclude that wearing of face masks in public corresponds to the most effective means to prevent interhuman transmission, and this inexpensive practice, in conjunction with simultaneous social distancing, quarantine, and contact tracing, represents the most likely fighting opportunity to stop the COVID-19 pandemic. Our work also highlights the fact that sound science is essential in decision-making for the current and future public health pandemics.
Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Modeling and Simulation, Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/c11361655e2fc378de68942d395bd5a0dd12bdeb
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Citations in the corpus
- Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany (2020, positive): “The work that is most closely related to our approach is (47), who esti‐ mate the effects of public health measures on the spread of Covid‐19 in the three pandemic epicenters Wuhan, Italy, and New York City over the period January 23 to May 9, 2020.”
- Gender differences in COVID-19 attitudes and behavior: Panel evidence from eight countries (2020, background): “In particular, the main route for the spread of COVID-19—airborne transmission—is largely reduced by wearing face masks: 78,000 fewer infections in Italy in a month and 66,000 fewer in New York City over a 3-wk period (4).”
- Unexpected air pollution with marked emission reductions during the COVID-19 outbreak in China (2020, neutral): “Meanwhile, an exposure to high levels of PM can cause adverse effects on the respiratory and cardiovascular systems and possibly increase the fatality rate of COVID-19 ( 22 ).”