Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania

By C. Arndt, William H. Farmer, Kenneth M. Strzepek, J. Thurlow. 2012

145 citations recorded by the source corpus.

The consequences of climate change for agriculture and food security in developing countries are of serious concern. Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change. This paper estimates the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used in calibrated crop models to predict crop yield changes for 110 districts in the country. The results are in turn imposed on a highly-disaggregated, recursive dynamic economy-wide model of Tanzania. The authors find that, relative to a no-climate-change baseline and considering domestic agricultural production as the principal channel of impact, food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favorable outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions. Noteworthy differences in impacts across households are also present both by region and by income category.

Subfields: Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, General Agricultural and Biological Sciences, Soil Science

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/c00f9f8d3531617ee2b43c0c3689f006a9728394

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In Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

In General Agricultural and Biological Sciences

In Soil Science

Citations in the corpus

Intersections of Gender and Marital Status in Accessing Climate Change Adaptation: Evidence from Rural Tanzania (2016, background): “climatic conditions threaten their livelihoods and food security (Arndt et al., 2011; Kakota et al., 2011) because they are causing reductions in the yields of, among other crops, maize, sorghum and rice (Rowhani et al.”
Smallholder productivity and weather shocks: Adoption and impact of widely promoted agricultural practices in Tanzania (2017, background): “Projections from General Circulation Models show that food security in Tanzania is likely to deteriorate as a 2 consequence of climate change in the next 30 years (Arndt et al., 2012).”
Maize Cultivar Specific Parameters for Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Application in Tanzania (2014, methodology): “Moreover, generic models which need few crop data, for example CLICROP, have also been used in Tanzania for climate change studies [11].”