A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach to Seasonal Hurricane Modeling

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Bayesian Changepoint Analysis for Extreme Events (Typhoons, Heavy Rainfall, and Heat Waves): An RJMCMC Approach (2010, unknown): “In many real applications adopting the model (1), the rate parameter l is treated as a random variable instead of a constant to construct a hierarchical framework (e.g., Chu and Zhao 2004; Elsner and Jagger 2004).”
Bayesian Multiple Changepoint Analysis of Hurricane Activity in the Eastern North Pacific: A Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach (2006, background): “In many cases, hurricane time series cannot be simply described by a constant rate Poisson process (e.g., Elsner and Jagger 2004).”
Modeling tropical cyclone intensity with quantile regression (2009, background): “All four covariates have been statistically linked to USA coastal hurricane activity ( Elsner and Jagger, 2004, 2008 ).”
A Bayesian Regression Approach for Predicting Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Central North Pacific (2006, methodology): “With a similar Bayesian regression model, more recently Elsner and Jagger (2006) attempted to predict annual U.”