Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015

By Carmen M. Reinhart, Vincent R. Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch. Social Science Research Network, 2016

131 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data sources. We then document a strong overlap between the ebb and flow of financial capital, the commodity price super-cycle, and sovereign defaults since 1815. The results have implications for today, as many emerging markets are facing a double bust in capital inflows and commodity prices, making them vulnerable to crises.

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/beb70bd871fa2309d48ab99ac72c94c877892860

Citations in the corpus

• Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?* (2019, background): “A widespread dollar shortage at the time (see Reinhart 2016) drove parallel market premia sky high (often into triple digits).”