Forecasting solar wind structures and shock arrival times using an ensemble of models

By C. Fry, M. Dryer, Z. Smith, Wei Sun, C. Deehr, S. Akasofu. 2003

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Ensemble Modeling of CMEs Using the WSA–ENLIL+Cone Model (2015, background): “er forecast conﬁdence. To understand the uncertainties in space weather forecasting, ensemble coronal mass ejection (CME) forecasting eﬀorts have now begun in space weather models of the heliosphere. Fry et al. (2003), McKenna-Lawlor et al. (2006), and Smith et al. (2009) compared the performance of”
Numerical simulation of the 12 May 1997 interplanetary CME event (2004, result): “Note that our approach is similar to other modeling efforts [e.g., Dryer et al., 2001; Fry et al., 2003]; however, in contrast it is based on interpretation of CME observations instead of interpretation of solar flare and type-II radio burst observations to specify shocks.”
THREE-DIMENSIONAL SOLAR WIND MODELING FROM THE SUN TO EARTH BY A SIP-CESE MHD MODEL WITH A SIX-COMPONENT GRID (2010, methodology): “The WSA model has been currently used in the kinematic HAFv.2 model (Fry et al. 2003; Smith et al. 2009) to obtain the solar wind background.”