Estimation of Gridded Population and GDP Scenarios with Spatially Explicit Statistical Downscaling
By Daisuke Murakami, Y. Yamagata. Sustainability, 2016
192 citations recorded by the source corpus.
This study downscales the population and gross domestic product (GDP) scenarios given under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) into 0.5-degree grids. Our downscale approach has the following features. (i) It explicitly considers spatial and socioeconomic interactions among cities, (ii) it utilizes auxiliary variables, including road network and land cover, (iii) it endogenously estimates the influence from each factor by a model ensemble approach, and (iv) it allows us to control urban shrinkage/dispersion depending on SSPs. It is confirmed that our downscaling results are consistent with scenario assumptions (e.g., concentration in SSP1 and dispersion in SSP3). Besides, while existing grid-level scenarios tend to have overly-smoothed population distributions in nonurban areas, ours does not suffer from the problem, and captures the difference in urban and nonurban areas in a more reasonable manner. Our gridded dataset, including population counts and gross productivities by 0.5 degree grids by 10 years, are available from http://www.cger.nies.go.jp/gcp/population-and-gdp.html.
Subfields: Environmental Engineering, Global and Planetary Change, Transportation
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/bbfae9e146a74b6220b738e700acdecd3acc8f71
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In Environmental Engineering
In Global and Planetary Change
Citations in the corpus
- Extreme heat waves under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming (2018, background): “…Research (NCAR), provides aprojectionof global populationunder shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP): the dataset, which includes actual population for the period 1980–2010 and estimated projection for the period 2020–2100, has been regridded on a 0.5× 0.5 degree grid (Murakami and Yamagata 2016).”