Capacity Factor of Wind Power: Realized Values vs. Estimates

By Nicolas Boccard. 2009

286 citations recorded by the source corpus.

For two decades now, the capacity factor of wind power measuring the average energy delivered has been assumed in the 30-35% range of the name plate capacity. Yet, the mean realized value for Europe over the last five years is below 21%; accordingly private cost is two-third higher and the reduction of carbon emissions is 40% less than previously expected. We document this discrepancy and offer rationalizations that emphasize the long term variations of wind speeds, the behavior of the wind power industry, political interference and the mode of finance. We conclude with the consequences of the capacity factor miscalculation and some policy recommendations.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Electrical and Electronic Engineering

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/bbd6034078296314b67265daa7fdcab39155567b

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In Economics and Econometrics

1. Mark Z. Jacobson
2. J. Kaldellis
3. Eva Schmid
4. M. Delucchi
5. Maria Kapsali
6. B. Knopf
7. Paul Nahmmacher
8. Yi Yang

In Electrical and Electronic Engineering

1. Mark Z. Jacobson
2. J. Kaldellis
3. Eva Schmid
4. M. Delucchi
5. Maria Kapsali
6. B. Knopf
7. Paul Nahmmacher

Citations in the corpus

• Shifting towards offshore wind energy—Recent activity and future development (2013, background): “As regarding expected capacity factors, it is stated that by 2020, at the European level, average values for offshore wind could reach the quite high percentage of 40–45% (Boccard, 2009; EWEA, 2008).”
• Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, Part II: Reliability, system and transmission costs, and policies (2011, background): “Bresesti et al. (2007) estimate that converters cost 0.”
• The European renewable energy target for 2030 – An impact assessment of the electricity sector (2015, methodology): “In order to reflect the circumstance in which the useable wind and solar power potential is lower than anticipated, for example due to lower social acceptance of wind power plants or other empirically observed factors (Boccard, 2009), we calculate one scenario using solely average capacity factors (”