Global energy growth is outpacing decarbonization

By R. B. Jackson, Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, J. Canadell, J. I. Korsbakken, Zhu Liu, Zhu Liu, G. P. Peters, Bo Zheng. Environmental Research Letters, 2018

242 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Recent reports have highlighted the challenge of keeping global average temperatures below 2 °C and—even more so—1.5 °C (IPCC 2018). Fossil-fuel burning and cement production release ∼90% of all CO2 emissions from human activities. After a three-year hiatus with stable global emissions (Jackson et al 2016; Le Quéré C et al 2018a ; IEA 2018), CO2 emissions grew by 1.6% in 2017 to 36.2 Gt (billion tonnes), and are expected to grow a further 2.7% in 2018 (range: 1.8%–3.7%) to a record 37.1 ± 2 Gt CO2 (Le Quéré et al 2018b). Additional increases in 2019 remain uncertain but appear likely because of persistent growth in oil and natural gas use and strong growth projected for the global economy. Coal use has slowed markedly in the last few years, potentially peaking, but its future trajectory remains uncertain. Despite positive progress in ∼19 countries whose economies have grown over the last decade and their emissions have declined, growth in energy use from fossil-fuel sources is still outpacing the rise of low-carbon sources and activities. A robust global economy, insufficient emission reductions in developed countries, and a need for increased energy use in developing countries where per capita emissions remain far below those of wealthier nations will continue to put upward pressure on CO2 emissions. Peak emissions will occur only when total fossil CO2 emissions finally start to decline despite growth in global energy consumption, with fossil energy production replaced by rapidly growing low- or no-carbon technologies.

Subfields: Pollution, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/b9fe8321448d7e5bd8ae67fdb66c5d634523ac1f

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Citations in the corpus

Green bonds for the Paris agreement and sustainable development goals (2019, background): “…to 3.9%per year (as it did in 2018), the environmental benefits generated by recent green bond investments would provide onlyminor contributions to what would be needed to curb the effects of the roughly 37 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 emissions estimated to result from such growth (Jackson et al 2018).”
Persistent fossil fuel growth threatens the Paris Agreement and planetary health (2019, methodology): “Published by IOPPublishing Ltd 2018 increased 2.1% to 36.6±1.8 Gt yr−1 (Jackson et al 2018, LeQuéré et al 2018, Friedlingstein et al 2019).”