The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market

By Pedro Santa-clara, Rossen Valkanov. 2003

562 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Finance

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/b9bc9d2e16e81d25a58dd803cec9c55e43b0b598

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Citations in the corpus

Political Geography and Stock Returns: The Value and Risk Implications of Proximity to Political Power (2012, unknown): “Santa-Clara and Valkanov (2003) report a much higher excess return in the stock market during Democratic administrations than during Republican administrations, but no difference in riskiness across presidencies that could justify a risk premium.”
The Bright Side of Political Uncertainty: The Case of R&D (2015, background): “Santa-Clara and Valkanov (2003) find that excess stock returns are higher and real interest rates are lower under Democratic than Republican presidencies after controlling for business-cycle variables and risk factors.”
Government ideology and economic policy-making in the United States—a survey (2017, unknown): “Stock market returns were higher under Democratic than Republican presidents (Santa-Clara and Valkanov 2003; Pastor and Veronesi 2017).”
Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices (2012, background): “30In another study of political cycles, Santa-Clara and Valkanov (2003) find that the average stock market return is higher under Democratic presidencies than under Republican presidencies.”
The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty (2015, unknown): “INSERT FIGURE 1 ABOUT HERE More formally, Table 1 panel A presents the estimates of a standardized linear regression of EPU on several standard economic state variables (e.g. Santa-Clara and Valkanov, 2003, etc).”
The Pollution Premium (2023, background): “Since political connection is positively related to future stock returns (e.g., Liu, Shu, and Wei (2017)) or results in risk premium (Santa-Clara and Valkanov (2003)), the emission-return relation may merely reflect the asset pricing implications of political connections.”
Stock Market Volatility around National Elections (2008, unknown): “Santa-Clara and Valkanov (2003) show that the market excess return was higher under Democrat than Republican presidencies throughout the period from 1927 to 1998.”
The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market (2014, background): “Santa-Clara and Valkanov (2003) relate the equity risk premium to political cycles.”
The Real Effects of Political Uncertainty: Elections and Investment Sensitivity to Stock Prices (2010, background): “, Wurgler (2000), Bushman and Smith (2001), Durnev et al.”