Challenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security under climate change

By J. Vervoort, P. K. Thornton, P. Kristjanson, Wiebke Förch, P. Ericksen, Kasper Kok, John J. A. Ingram, Mario Herrero, A. Palazzo, A. Helfgott and 4 more. 2014

214 citations recorded by the source corpus.

This paper examines the development and use of scenarios as an approach to guide action in multi-level, multi-actor adaptation contexts such as food security under climate change. Three challenges are highlighted: (1) ensuring the appropriate scope for action; (2) moving beyond intervention-based decision guidance; and (3) developing long-term shared capacity for strategic planning. To overcome these challenges we have applied explorative scenarios and normative back-casting with stakeholders from different sectors at the regional level in East Africa. We then applied lessons about appropriate scope, enabling adaptation pathways, and developing strategic planning capacity to scenarios processes in multiple global regions. Scenarios were created to have a broad enough scope to be relevant to diverse actors, and then adapted by different actor groups to ensure their salience in specific decision contexts. The initial strategy for using the scenarios by bringing a range of actors together to explore new collaborative proposals had limitations as well as strengths versus the application of scenarios for specific actor groups and existing decision pathways. Scenarios development and use transitioned from an intervention-based process to an embedded process characterized by continuous engagement. Feasibility and long-term sustainability could be ensured by having decision makers own the process and focusing on developing strategic planning capacity within their home organizations.

Subfields: Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, General Agricultural and Biological Sciences, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/b3778620d006102574268f49e8d6332c18351a24

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

1. P. Tittonell
2. J. Antle
3. Jerry L. Hatfield
4. Michael R. Carter
5. L. Jackson
6. Mark Lubell
7. William R. Horwath
8. P. K. Thornton

In General Agricultural and Biological Sciences

1. L. Klerkx
2. M. Schut
3. C. Leeuwis
4. P. Tittonell
5. J. Antle
6. Michael R. Carter
7. Leslie Lipper
8. H. Jochemsen

In Global and Planetary Change

1. J. Antle
2. Jerry L. Hatfield
3. Michael R. Carter
4. Mark Lubell
5. C. Leeuwis
6. P. K. Thornton
7. Leslie Lipper
8. Matthew P Reynolds

Citations in the corpus

• Systemic perspectives on scaling agricultural innovations. A review (2016, background): “scenario analysis will be appropriately inclusive (e.g. Barakatt et al. 2010; Foresight 2011; Nelson et al. 2010; Paillard et al. 2014; Vervoort et al. 2014).”
• Evaluating agricultural trade-offs in the age of sustainable development (2016, background): “Scenario building among different stakeholders (Herrero et al., 2014; Vervoort et al., 2014) and education simulation tools that allow for role-playing (García-Barrios et al.”
• Climate-smart agriculture global research agenda: scientific basis for action (2014, background): “cultivars or changes in N fertilization) [135-137].”