Using niche‐based modelling to assess the impact of climate change on tree functional diversity in Europe

By Wilfried Thuiller, S. Lavorel, M. Sykes, Miguel B. Araújo. 2006

294 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Rapid anthropogenic climate change is already affecting species distributions and ecosystem functioning worldwide. We applied niche‐based models to analyse the impact of climate change on tree species and functional diversity in Europe. Present‐day climate was used to predict the distributions of 122 tree species from different functional types (FT). We then explored projections of future distributions under one climate scenario for 2080, considering two alternative dispersal assumptions: no dispersal and unlimited dispersal. The species‐rich broadleaved deciduous group appeared to play a key role in the future of different European regions. Temperate areas were projected to lose both species richness and functional diversity due to the loss of broadleaved deciduous trees. These were projected to migrate to boreal forests, thereby increasing their species richness and functional diversity. Atlantic areas provided an intermediate case, with a predicted reduction in the numbers of species and occasional predicted gains in functional diversity. This resulted from a loss in species within the broadleaved deciduous FT, but overall maintenance of the group. Our results illustrate the fact that both species‐specific predictions and functional patterns should be examined separately in order to assess the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and gain insights into future ecosystem functioning.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Ecological Modeling, Nature and Landscape Conservation

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/b2f663cd0c54ce552802a436724a3a267082d1f2

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Citations in the corpus

Contrasted impacts of climate change on stream fish assemblages along an environmental gradient (2009, methodology): “…including plants (e.g. Saetersdal et al. , 1998; Thuiller, 2004; Ohlemu ¨ ller et al. , 2006), insects (e.g. Peterson et al. , 2004), mammals (e.g. Thuiller et al. , 2006a; Levinsky et al. , 2007), herptiles (e.g. Araujo et al. , 2006) and birds (e.g. Peterson, 2003; Jensen et al. , 2008;…”
Combined effects of climate and land‐use change on the future of humid tropical forests (2010, unknown): “S. America 63 3 24 9 Africa 51 6 14 29 Asia-Oceania 37 19 21 23 (Thuiller et al. 2006).”
Improving species distribution models for climate change studies: variable selection and scale (2011, methodology): “…of using only climate predictors and a resolution of 10 · 10 km or 50 · 50 km pixel SDMs to explore a variety of methodological comparisons focused on SDM (e.g. Araújo et al., 2006; Thuiller et al., 2006; Pöyry et al., 2008) and ecological issues (e.g. Luoto et al., 2006; Svenning et al., 2008).”
Species distribution models in conservation biogeography: developments and challenges (2013, background): “(Thuiller et al., 2006) 79 Application climate change: temperate areas of Europe predicted to lose tree functional diversity”
Where, why and how? Explaining the low‐temperature range limits of temperate tree species (2016, methodology): “…‘space for time’ approach, using climate and species distri- bution archives or morphological plant traits, the actual functional meaning of which remained unproven (e.g. Gegout 2005; Thuiller et al. 2006; Bellard et al. 2012; Buckley & Kingsolver 2012; Amano et al. 2014; Stahl, Reu & Wirth 2014).”
Traits to stay, traits to move: a review of functional traits to assess sensitivity and adaptive capacity of temperate and boreal trees to climate change (2016, background): “Recent years have seen a marked increase in efforts to assess potential effects of climate change on the distribution and abundance of forest plant species (Thuiller et al. 2006; Iverson et al. 2008; McKenney et al. 2011; Price et al. 2013; Berteaux et al. 2014; Périé et al. 2014).”
Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity (2012, background): “However, a few studies have explored the impact of climate change on functional (Thuiller et al. 2006) and phylogenetic diversity (Thuiller et al. 2011), and the effects on genetic diversity are only beginning to be explored.”
Moving beyond static species distribution models in support of conservation biogeography (2010, background): “…change impacts typically acknowledge the limitation of not considering a species ability to reach new suitable habitat, and one strategy to address this has been to compare the extreme cases of ‘all versus nothing’ migration into new habitat (e.g. Araújo et al., 2006; Thuiller et al., 2006).”
Species Distribution Modeling in the Tropics: Problems, Potentialities, and the Role of Biological Data for Effective Species Conservation (2009, background): “…sampling Birds P-A Thuiller et al. (2003) Spain Ecology Partitioning Plants P-A Thuiller et al. (2005) Europe Climate change Same data Plants P Thuiller et al. (2006) Europe Climate change Partitioning Plants P Tourenq et al. (2001) France Biological invasions Partitioning Birds P-A Travaini…”
Species distribution models that do not incorporate global data misrepresent potential distributions: a case study using Iberian diving beetles (2011, background): “, 1999; Martı́nez-Meyer & Peterson, 2006), assessing species-range shifts caused by climate change (Araújo & Rahbek, 2006; Thuiller et al., 2006), Figure 1 Relationship between species richness from potential distributions derived from Iberian data (IPD) and whole-range distribution (WPD) of 100 spe”
Considerations for restoring temperate forests of tomorrow: forest restoration, assisted migration, and bioengineering (2015, background): “…species or populations maladapted, as predicted, for example, for Picea abies in the southwestern portion of its current European range (Sykes and Prentice 1996) and for broadleaved species moving northward from temperate European forests to the current boreal forests (Thuiller et al. 2006).”