Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment

By Aleš Bulí, A. J. Hamann, Craig Burnside, Domenico Fanizza, Dominique Guillaume, Henrik Hansen, R. Kincaid, Timothy Lane, L. Lipschitz, Alex Mourmouras and 4 more. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 2003

314 citations recorded by the source corpus.

This article examines empirical evidence on the volatility and uncertainty of aid flows and their main policy implications. Aid is found to be more volatile than fiscal revenues-particularly in highly aid-dependent countries-and shortfalls in aid and domestic revenue tend to coincide. The article also finds that uncertainty about aid disbursements is large and that the information content of commitments made by donors is either very small or statistically insignificant. Specific policies and broader international efforts to cope with these features of aid are briefly discussed.

Subfields: Development, Economics and Econometrics, Information Systems

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Citations in the corpus

Aid Volatility, Policy and Development (2008, methodology): “…2.29 1.79 Constant US$: BulirHamann 5.4 2.5 Constant Local Currency 26.8 23.5 8.6 8.0 3.70 3.21 GDP ratio: whole sample 26.3 22.7 8.1 7.3 4.05 3.76 GDP ratio: Countries where aid/GDP> 50% 23.1 19.9 6.1 6.0 3.06 2.83 Sample: 76 countries for period 1975-2003, as specified by Bulir and Hamann(2003).”
It Works; It Doesn't; It Can, But That Depends (2006, background): “First, it is interesting that despite the controversy over the Burnside and Dollar (2000) results, there is some acceptance among researchers that better policies, however, defined, should in all probability result in more effective aid (see, for example, Robinson and Tarp 2000; Benyon 2001, 2002; M”
The Dynamic Implications of Foreign Aid and its Variability (2005, background): “The ratio of variances of detrended aid to domestic revenue (denoted as aid volatility II in Table 6) is an obvious benchmark as aid receipts supplement domestic fiscal revenue (Bulí ř and Hamann, 2003).”
Determinants of Donor Generosity: A Survey of the Aid Budget Literature (2014, background): “5 This is not to ignore that aid volatility is a major issue at the level of individual recipient countries (see Bulir and Hamann 2003).”
Budget Support as More Effective Aid? Recent Experiences and Emerging Lessons (2006, background): “) The most elaborate recent study of aid volatility and predictability is that of Bulíř and Hamann (2003), who find that aid flows are volatile and largely unpredictable. Drawing on aggregate commitment data and long-term disbursement data, originating from OECD-DAC statistics, that cover both budge”
Donors and domestic politics: Political influences on foreign aid effort (2010, unknown): “But volatility in aid is an increasingly cited cause of id ineffectiveness (Arellano et al., 2009; Bulir & Hamann, 2003; ulir & Lane, 2002; Eifert & Gelb, 2005; Lensink & Morrissey, 2000). owever, this literature generally has been silent on the causes of olatility.”