Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market?

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Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation (2019, background): “3 Stock (2011), Gordon (2013), Ball and Mazumder (2014), Krueger, Cramer, and Cho (2014), and Watson (2014) generally find that the short-term unemployment rate is a more stable activity variable in empirical Phillips curves than the long-term unemployment rate, using aggregate time series data for ”
Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis (2018, methodology): “First, Krueger et al (2014) use the time structure of the Current Population Survey(in the sample for four months, out for eight months, back in for four months) to look at the more relevant longer transition probabilities, and confirm the message from monthly probabilities.”