Association between Zika virus and microcephaly in French Polynesia, 2013–2015: a retrospective study

By Simon Cauchemez, M. Besnard, P. Bompard, T. Dub, P. Guillemette-Artur, D. Eyrolle-Guignot, H. Salje, M. V. Van Kerkhove, V. Abadie, C. Garel and 2 more. The Lancet, 2016

907 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Background The emergence of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas has coincided with an increase in the report of birth of infants with microcephaly. On 1 February 2016, the World Health Organization declared the suspected link between ZIKV and microcephaly a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. However, to date, precise quantification of this association is lacking. Methods We retrospectively analysed data from a ZIKV outbreak in French Polynesia in October 2013–April 2014, which was the largest ever documented prior to the outbreak in the Americas. Serological and surveillance data were used to estimate the probability of ZIKV infection for each week of the epidemic. We also conducted an exhaustive search of medical records to identify all microcephaly cases from September 2013–July 2015. Simple models were developed to determine the period during pregnancy when ZIKV infection may increase the risk of microcephaly and estimate the associated risk. Findings Sixty-six percent (95% CI: 62, 70) of Polynesians were infected by ZIKV. Of the eight microcephaly cases identified during the 23-month study period, seven (88%) occurred in the four-month period following the ZIKV outbreak. This pattern was best explained by a model that assumed ZIKV infection in the first trimester of pregnancy increased the risk of microcephaly. In this model, the risk of microcephaly associated with ZIKV infection was 95 (95 CI: 34, 191) per 10,000 women infected in the first trimester of pregnancy while the prevalence of microcephaly was 2 (95% CI: 0, 8) per 10,000 neonates. Models where the risk of microcephaly also increased if infection occurred in trimesters 2 and 3 were not significantly worse fitting than this model. Interpretation This study provides the first quantitative estimate of the risk of microcephaly in a foetus/neonate whose mother was infected by ZIKV. Funding Labex-IBEID, NIH-MIDAS, AXA Research fund and EU-PREDEMICS.

Subfields: Epidemiology, Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/afb668c3699b24d5a0b005da58e1ea7a55ba7954

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Epidemiology

  1. Guo-li Ming
  2. Hongjun Song

In Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health

  1. Hao Wu

In Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

  1. Guo-li Ming
  2. Hongjun Song

Citations in the corpus