How Long Do Housing Cycles Last? A Duration Analysis for 19 OECD Countries
By P. Bracke. Social Science Research Network, 2011
123 citations recorded by the source corpus.
This paper analyzes the duration of house price upturns and downturns in the last 40 years for 19 OECD countries. I provide two sets of results, one pertaining to the average length and the other to the length distribution. On average, upturns are longer than downturns, but the difference disappears once the last house price boom is excluded. In terms of length distribution, upturns (but not downturns) are more likely to end as their duration increases. This duration dependence is consistent with a boom-bust view of house price dynamics, where booms represent departures from fundamentals that are increasingly difficult to sustain.
Subfields: Accounting, Economics and Econometrics
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/ae9b725ff2c0dc7b2efe0265156f9a9a1ff0cebb
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In Accounting
In Economics and Econometrics
Citations in the corpus
- On the macroeconomic determinants of the housing market in Greece: a VECM approach (2016, methodology): “How Long Do Housing Cycles Last ? A Duration Analysis for 19 OECD Countries Bracke (2011) Quarterly data 1970:12010:1 for 19 OECD countries Linear Probability Model (LPM) Upturns last longer than downturns.”