Earth's energy imbalance and implications

By J. Hansen, Makiko Sato, P. Kharecha, Karina von Schuckmann Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia Univ. Earth Institute, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique. 2011

618 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Abstract. Improving observations of ocean heat content show that Earth is absorbing more energy from the Sun than it is radiating to space as heat, even during the recent solar minimum. The inferred planetary energy imbalance, 0.58 ± 0.15 W m −2 during the 6-yr period 2005–2010, confirms the dominant role of the human-made greenhouse effect in driving global climate change. Observed surface temperature change and ocean heat gain together constrain the net climate forcing and ocean mixing rates. We conclude that most climate models mix heat too efficiently into the deep ocean and as a result underestimate the negative forcing by human-made aerosols. Aerosol climate forcing today is inferred to be −1.6 ± 0.3 W m −2 , implying substantial aerosol indirect climate forcing via cloud changes. Continued failure to quantify the specific origins of this large forcing is untenable, as knowledge of changing aerosol effects is needed to understand future climate change. We conclude that recent slowdown of ocean heat uptake was caused by a delayed rebound effect from Mount Pinatubo aerosols and a deep prolonged solar minimum. Observed sea level rise during the Argo float era is readily accounted for by ice melt and ocean thermal expansion, but the ascendency of ice melt leads us to anticipate acceleration of the rate of sea level rise this decade.

Subfields: Global and Planetary Change, Oceanography

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/ad2e20ccb20ea6a741cf64c96025460ba05963c6

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Citations in the corpus

Impact of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ocean heat storage and transient climate change (2014, background): “Moreover, analyses suggest that differences in ocean heat uptake may play an important role for the large inter-model spread in simulated warming [Raper et al., 2002; Boé et al., 2009; Hansen et al., 2011; Kuhlbrodt and Gregory , 2012; Geoffroy et al., 2013a, b].”
The global energy balance from a surface perspective (2013, background): “11 Wm (90 % confidence level) in the upper ocean over the period 1993–2008, which Hansen et al. (2011) translate into a planetary energy imbalance of 0.8 ± 0.2 Wm (one sigma uncertainty). A slightly lower planetary imbalance of 0.58 Wm is obtained by Hansen et al. (2011) for the same period, if the ”
Young People's Burden: Requirement of Negative CO2 Emissions (2016, neutral): “The temporal shape of the historic aerosol forcing curve (Table A10) is from Hansen et al. (2011), which in turn was based on the Novakov et al. (2003) analysis of how aerosol emissions have changed with technology change.”
Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5 archive (2014, background): “A recent assessment, including nonocean heat content changes (10.04 W/m2), suggests an imbalance over this period of around 0.4 W/m2 [Hansen et al., 2011].”
Observations, inferences, and mechanisms of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A review (2016, background): “Moreover, analyses suggest that differences in ocean heat uptake may explain a significant portion of the large intermodel spread in simulated warming [Raper et al., 2002; Boé et al., 2009; Hansen et al., 2011; Kuhlbrodt and Gregory, 2012; Geoffroy et al., 2013a, 2013b].”
Evaluation of CMIP6 DECK Experiments With CNRM‐CM6‐1 (2019, background): “Furthermore, the Earth is not presently in radiative equilibriumwith a global mean imbalance of the order of 0.5 W/m2 (as estimated by Hansen et al., 2011, for the recent 2000–2004 period).”
Physically Consistent Responses of the Global Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in Models and Observations (2014, background): “As noted, the actual D P is also related to the direct inﬂuence of the radiative forcings upon atmospheric radiative cooling (Andrews et al. 2010) while the timescale for change in D T is lengthened for models with weaker ocean heat uptake and more positive feedback (e.g., Hansen et al. 2011).”
The ocean’s role in the transient response of climate to abrupt greenhouse gas forcing (2015, background): “Hansen et al. (2011) argue that after 100 years a global-average response of between 60 and 90 % encompasses the real world response, with 90 % considered fast and 60 % slow.”
Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations (2013, background): “…on observed temperature changes, ocean heat uptake, and cacluated non-aerosol forcings produce ERF best estimates of−0.8 to−1.6 W m−2 (Murphy et al., 2009; Shindell and Faluvegi, 2009; Church et al., 2011; Hansen et al., 2011), though some find smaller values (e.g. Libardoni and Forest, 2011).”
Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 (2013, background): “The observed present-day top of the atmosphere (TOA) energy budget shows a small imbalance of about 0.9 ± 0.3Wm-2 (Hansen et al. 2011; Lyman et al. 2010; Stevens and Schwartz 2012; Trenberth and Fasullo 2012).”
Global warming in the pipeline (2022, methodology): “We also use an alternative aerosol scenario [151] that reaches –1.63 W/m 2 in 2010 relative to 1880 and –1.8 W/m 2 relative to 1850 (Fig.”
Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) Edition-4.0 Data Product (2018, background): “When the climate system is forced by natural or anthropogenic factors (e.g., changes in solar output, volcanic eruptions, and human activities), an imbalance in the TOA ERB results (Hansen et al. 2011; Loeb et al. 2012; Trenberth et al. 2014; von Schuckmann et al. 2016).”