‘All models are wrong...’: an introduction to model uncertainty

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Combating the Compounding-Error Problem with a Multi-step Model (2019, background): “More generally, a common view across various scientiﬁc disciplines is that all models are wrong, though some are still useful [Box, 1976; Wit et al. , 2012].”
A Bayesian information criterion for singular models (2013, methodology): “…79, Part 2, pp. 323–380 A Bayesian information criterion for singular models Mathias Drton University of Washington, Seattle, USA and Martyn Plummer International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France [Read before The Royal Statistical Society at a meeting organized by the Research Section…”
Does data splitting improve prediction? (2013, background): “See [4] and [34] for recent discussion of these issues and, less recently, in [6] and [28].”