Estimation of the Transmission Risk of the 2019-nCoV and Its Implication for Public Health Interventions

By B. Tang, Xia Wang, Qian Li, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Sanyi Tang, Yanni Xiao, Jianhong Wu. Journal of Clinical Medicine, 2020

1,389 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Since the emergence of the first cases in Wuhan, China, the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection has been quickly spreading out to other provinces and neighboring countries. Estimation of the basic reproduction number by means of mathematical modeling can be helpful for determining the potential and severity of an outbreak and providing critical information for identifying the type of disease interventions and intensity. A deterministic compartmental model was devised based on the clinical progression of the disease, epidemiological status of the individuals, and intervention measures. The estimations based on likelihood and model analysis show that the control reproduction number may be as high as 6.47 (95% CI 5.71–7.23). Sensitivity analyses show that interventions, such as intensive contact tracing followed by quarantine and isolation, can effectively reduce the control reproduction number and transmission risk, with the effect of travel restriction adopted by Wuhan on 2019-nCoV infection in Beijing being almost equivalent to increasing quarantine by a 100 thousand baseline value. It is essential to assess how the expensive, resource-intensive measures implemented by the Chinese authorities can contribute to the prevention and control of the 2019-nCoV infection, and how long they should be maintained. Under the most restrictive measures, the outbreak is expected to peak within two weeks (since 23 January 2020) with a significant low peak value. With travel restriction (no imported exposed individuals to Beijing), the number of infected individuals in seven days will decrease by 91.14% in Beijing, compared with the scenario of no travel restriction.

Subfields: Infectious Diseases, Modeling and Simulation

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/a74cec58b08636c930fc8d9d12dad6471ae1cc29

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Citations in the corpus

Psychological Impact of COVID-19 and Lockdown among University Students in Malaysia: Implications and Policy Recommendations (2020, background): “Other stressors include students’ place of residence, family income stability [3,36], parents’ psychological status [37], reduced social interactions [38], increased number of new cases and affected provinces [13], and the imposition of travel bans affecting daily life [39].”
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Quarantine alone or in combination with other public health measures to control COVID‐19: a rapid review (2020, neutral): “Tang 2020a {published data only} Tang B, Wang X, Li Q, Bragazzi NL, Tang S, Xiao Y, et al. Estimation of the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV and its implication for public health interventions.”
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