Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models

By David A. Keith, H. Resit Akçakaya, Wilfried Thuiller, Guy F. Midgley, Richard G. Pearson, Steven J. Phillips, Helen M. Regan, Miguel B. Araújo, T. Rebelo. Biology Letters, 2008

670 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Ecological Modeling, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Nature and Landscape Conservation

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/a65992d36799d9580fe9973bd5d0f4211e204e8d

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Citations in the corpus

Past tree range dynamics in the Iberian Peninsula inferred through phylogeography and palaeodistribution modelling: A review (2010, background): “Recent studies have attempted to overcome some of these limitations, e.g. by combining them with spatially explicit population models (Keith et al., 2008) or introducing dispersal processes during range expansion (De Marco et al., 2008).”
A framework for assessing threats and benefits to species responding to climate change (2011, background): “…Ficetola et al. 2010), but which is likely to become increasingly feasible as models that combine both climatic and population dynamics are developed (Keith et al. 2008; Anderson et al. 2009) and the period over which observation data are available to parameterise and test such models increases.”
From climate change predictions to actions – conserving vulnerable animal groups in hotspots at a regional scale (2010, background): “Demographic parameters are also important factors in determining resistance to climate change (Keith et al., 2008).”
Niche breadth and geographic range size as determinants of species survival on geological time scales (2015, background): “These rule sets are important because of the timeintensive nature of estimating extinction risk for individual species and populations (Keith et al., 2008), and because of rising concerns about the future of marine ecosystems and biodiversity (Jones et al.”
Climate change‐induced decline in bamboo habitats and species diversity: implications for giant panda conservation (2015, background): “New advances in this field have started to develop species modelling approaches by incorporating more factors and parameters, such as metapopulation demography and landscape interactions (Keith et al., 2008; Vos et al., 2008), species life history traits (Peery et al.”
Adapting to climate change: a perspective from evolutionary physiology (2010, background): “…and how additional biological mechanisms might be incorporated to improve their utility (e.g. Pearson & Dawson 2003, Elith et al. 2006, Hijmans & Graham 2006, Brooker et al. 2007, Soberón 2007, Sutherst et al. 2007, Beale et al. 2008, Jeschke & Strayer 2008, Keith et al. 2008, Elith & Graham 2009).”
Projecting climate change impacts on species distributions in megadiverse South African Cape and Southwest Australian Floristic Regions: Opportunities and challenges (2009, background): “Our review and others highlight the need for the development of more realistic dynamic SDMs that integrate disturbance, dynamic population processes, species interactions and transient climates (Crick 2004; Guisan & Thuiller 2005; Keith et al. 2008; Thuiller et al. 2008).”
Using species co-occurrence networks to assess the impacts of climate change (2011, background): “Assessments of the effects of climate change on the distributions of species have typically been conducted using bioclimatic modelling approaches that ignore local population processes (but see Keith et al. 2008, Anderson et al. 2009) and biotic interactions (but see Araújo and Luoto 2007).”
European Bison habitat in the Carpathian Mountains (2010, background): “herds), demographic variation, or behavior, that can all influence habitat selection (Hampe, 2004; Keith et al., 2008; Krasinska and Krasinski, 2007).”
Fire management for biodiversity conservation: Key research questions and our capacity to answer them (2010, background): “However, such models are required to explore the consequences of different management strategies or different climate scenarios (Bradstock et al., 2006; Keith et al., 2008; Mouillot et al., 2002).”
Impact of climate change on biodiversity and associated key ecosystem services in Africa: a systematic review (2018, background): “The current velocity and magnitude of climate change trends will likely exceed the abilities of a number of species to survive and adapt to new environmental conditions thus leading to increased extinction rates (Keith et al. 2008; Loarie et al. 2009; Bellard et al. 2012).”