Climate change effects on runoff, catchment phosphorus loading and lake ecological state, and potential adaptations.

By Erik Jeppesen, B. Kronvang, M. Meerhoff, M. Søndergaard, K. Hansen, Hans E. Andersen, T. Lauridsen, Lone Liboriussen, M. Beklioğlu, A. Ozen and 1 more. Journal of Environmental Quality, 2009

657 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Climate change may have profound effects on phosphorus (P) transport in streams and on lake eutrophication. Phosphorus loading from land to streams is expected to increase in northern temperate coastal regions due to higher winter rainfall and to a decline in warm temperate and arid climates. Model results suggest a 3.3 to 16.5% increase within the next 100 yr in the P loading of Danish streams depending on soil type and region. In lakes, higher eutrophication can be expected, reinforced by temperature-mediated higher P release from the sediment. Furthermore, a shift in fish community structure toward small and abundant plankti-benthivorous fish enhances predator control of zooplankton, resulting in higher phytoplankton biomass. Data from Danish lakes indicate increased chlorophyll a and phytoplankton biomass, higher dominance of dinophytes and cyanobacteria (most notably of nitrogen fixing forms), but lower abundance of diatoms and chrysophytes, reduced size of copepods and cladocerans, and a tendency to reduced zooplankton biomass and zooplankton:phytoplankton biomass ratio when lakes warm. Higher P concentrations are also seen in warm arid lakes despite reduced external loading due to increased evapotranspiration and reduced inflow. Therefore, the critical loading for good ecological state in lakes has to be lowered in a future warmer climate. This calls for adaptation measures, which in the northern temperate zone should include improved P cycling in agriculture, reduced loading from point sources, and (re)-establishment of wetlands and riparian buffer zones. In the arid Southern Europe, restrictions on human use of water are also needed, not least on irrigation.

Subfields: Environmental Chemistry, Nature and Landscape Conservation

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/10af4ffad0c65eedcfdf0d2ebc771ae890c4fc10

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Citations in the corpus

Impact of climate warming on European inland waters (2014, background): “Expected changes in the hydrology of watersheds and processes within the catchment will affect runoff and ultimately inland waters (Jeppesen et al. 2009, Schneiderman et al. 2010).”
Mitigating harmful cyanobacterial blooms: strategies for control of nitrogen and phosphorus loads (2016, neutral): “Coupled lake catchment models can be used to help define targets for catchment nutrient loads to meet trophic state outcomes for lakes (e.g., Trolle et al. 2008; Jeppesen et al. 2009; Pierson et al. 2013; Molina-Navarro et al. 2014).”
Comparison of cyanobacterial and green algal growth rates at different temperatures (2013, background): “Finally, at higher temperatures, enhanced mineralisation (Gudasz et al., 2010) and increased rainfall and run-off (Jeppesen et al., 2009) may increase nutrient concentrations, thereby fuelling the blooms (Watson et al., 1997).”
Ecological impacts of excessive water level fluctuations in stratified freshwater lakes (2011, background): “As claimed by Jeppesen et al. (2009, 2010), in the future, lower nutrient thresholds will be needed to obtain clear water conditions and good trophic status in lakes.”
GLOBIO-Aquatic, a global model of human impact on the biodiversity of inland aquatic ecosystems (2015, background): “Climate change can aggravate the effects of eutrophication (Mooij et al., 2005; Jeppesen et al., 2009; Moss et al., 2011).”
Impacts of climate warming on lake fish community structure and potential effects on ecosystem function (2010, background): “The tendency to a decreased zooplankton:phytoplankton biomass ratio, and a reduced proportion of Daphnia amongst the cladocerans with increasing temperature, points in the same direction (Jeppesen et al., 2009).”
The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies—A Danish water management example (2013, background): “Consequently, the critical nutrient loading to obtain good ecological status according to the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) will likely be lower, and a further reduction of the external nutrient loading will be required to counteract this deterioration (Jeppesen et al 2009, 2011).”
Climate Change and the Future of Freshwater Biodiversity in Europe: A Primer for Policy-Makers (2009, background): “Small positives might include reduced nutrient loading from decreased precipitation, but greater release of nutrients from the sediments and increased frequency of complete drying out will cancel any such advantage (Beklioglu & Tan, 2008; Jeppesen et al., 2009).”