An Estimate of the Global Burden of Anthropogenic Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter on Premature Human Mortality Using Atmospheric Modeling

By S. Anenberg, L. Horowitz, Daniel Q. Tong, J. West. Environmental Health Perspectives, 2010

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Background Ground-level concentrations of ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter [≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5)] have increased since preindustrial times in urban and rural regions and are associated with cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. Objectives We estimated the global burden of mortality due to O3 and PM2.5 from anthropogenic emissions using global atmospheric chemical transport model simulations of preindustrial and present-day (2000) concentrations to derive exposure estimates. Methods Attributable mortalities were estimated using health impact functions based on long-term relative risk estimates for O3 and PM2.5 from the epidemiology literature. Using simulated concentrations rather than previous methods based on measurements allows the inclusion of rural areas where measurements are often unavailable and avoids making assumptions for background air pollution. Results Anthropogenic O3 was associated with an estimated 0.7 ± 0.3 million respiratory mortalities (6.3 ± 3.0 million years of life lost) annually. Anthropogenic PM2.5 was associated with 3.5 ± 0.9 million cardiopulmonary and 220,000 ± 80,000 lung cancer mortalities (30 ± 7.6 million years of life lost) annually. Mortality estimates were reduced approximately 30% when we assumed low-concentration thresholds of 33.3 ppb for O3 and 5.8 μg/m3 for PM2.5. These estimates were sensitive to concentration thresholds and concentration–mortality relationships, often by > 50%. Conclusions Anthropogenic O3 and PM2.5 contribute substantially to global premature mortality. PM2.5 mortality estimates are about 50% higher than previous measurement-based estimates based on common assumptions, mainly because of methodologic differences. Specifically, we included rural populations, suggesting higher estimates; however, the coarse resolution of the global atmospheric model may underestimate urban PM2.5 exposures.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/a46038e2e3449a3c24e20b128cbc9b85fec92b1a

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Citations in the corpus

Anthropogenic fugitive, combustion and industrial dust is a significant, underrepresented fine particulate matter source in global atmospheric models (2017, background): “5 (Anenberg et al 2010, Giannadaki et al 2014, Lee et al 2015, Lelieveld et al 2015, Brauer et al 2016, West et al 2016).”
Global crop yield reductions due to surface ozone exposure: 2. Year 2030 potential crop production losses and economic damage under two scenarios of O3 pollution (2011, background): “Because tropospheric ozone is a potent greenhouse gas in addition to a noxious air pollutant (Forster et al., 2007), O3 reductions would also provide numerous co-benefits to climate and human health (West et al., 2006, 2007; Fiore et al., 2008, Anenberg et al. 2010).”
Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change (2013, methodology): “Our approach to estimate the global burden of air pollution on mortality expands on that of Anenberg et al (2010) by using an ensemble of model estimates of both present-day and preindustrial air pollution.”
Ozone Pollution: A Major Health Hazard Worldwide (2019, background): “In one study, for example, anthropogenic ozone was associated with an estimated 700,000 ± 300,000 respiratory mortalities in 2000 (72).”
Better air for better health: Forging synergies in policies for energy access, climate change and air pollution (2013, background): “A number of recent studies have focused on co-benefits of reducing short-lived aerosols and the associated reduction in climate and health related impacts (see for example (Anenberg et al., 2010; UNEP/WMO, 2011; Shindell et al., 2012).”
An Integrated Risk Function for Estimating the Global Burden of Disease Attributable to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter Exposure (2014, methodology): “These RR models were also employed in more recent estimates of global mortality associated with ambient PM 2.5 concentrations (Anenberg et al. 2010; Evans et al. 2013).”