Return Periods and Return Levels Under Climate Change

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One hundred years of return period: Strengths and limitations (2015, methodology): “The hypotheses of stationarity and independence are commonly assumed as necessary conditions to proceed with conventional frequency analysis in hydrology [Chow et al., 1988]. Recently, the former assumption has been questioned by several researchers [e.g., Cooley, 2013; Salas and Obeysekera, 2014; D”
Non-stationary extreme value analysis in a changing climate (2014, background): “In this approach, return levels are expressed as a function of the return period T (Cooley 2013): T ¼ 1 1−p ð9Þ where p is the non-exceedance probability of occurrence in a given year (assumed constant under stationarity).”