How do fertilizer subsidy programs affect total fertilizer use in sub‐Saharan Africa? Crowding out, diversion, and benefit/cost assessments

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The Economy-wide Impacts and Risks of Malawi's Farm Input Subsidy Program (2014, unknown): “…per cent of pre-FISP fertilizer is displaced, which is below the 24.6 per cent displacement rate determined endogenously by our model, as a result of a 10 reallocation of land away from traditional maize, but slightly higher than the 18 per cent estimated by Jayne et al. (2013) using survey data.”
How does population density influence agricultural intensification and productivity? Evidence from Malawi (2014, result): “It is consistent with other studies in Malawi that have found evidence of subsidized fertilizer crowding out commercial fertilizer (Ricker-Gilbert et al., 2011; Jayne et al., 2013).”
Agricultural Input Subsidies: The Recent Malawi Experience (2013, background): “Two papers provide substantive new information on or potentially relevant to the FISP (Jayne et al., 2013; Jayne and Rashid, 2013).”
Review: Taking stock of Africa’s second-generation agricultural input subsidy programs (2018, background): “Understanding the crowding out/in effects of ISPs is critical for understanding the programs’ impacts on total household input use and incremental crop production (RickerGilbert et al., 2011; Jayne et al., 2013).”