Emissions, Concentrations, & Temperature: A Time Series Analysis

By Robert K. Kaufmann, Heikki Kauppi, James H. Stock. 2006

116 citations recorded by the source corpus.

We use recent advances in time series econometrics to estimate the relation among emissions of CO2 and CH4, the concentration of these gases, and global surface temperature. These models are estimated and specified to answer two questions; (1) does human activity affect global surface temperature and; (2) does global surface temperature affect the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and/or methane. Regression results provide direct evidence for a statistically meaningful relation between radiative forcing and global surface temperature. A simple model based on these results indicates that greenhouse gases and anthropogenic sulfur emissions are largely responsible for the change in temperature over the last 130 years. The regression results also indicate that increases in surface temperature since 1870 have changed the flow of carbon dioxide to and from the atmosphere in a way that increases its atmospheric concentration. Finally, the regression results for methane hint that higher temperatures may increase its atmospheric concentration, but this effect is not estimated precisely.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/9d85f57bbd8cee54f6d496e766cae73a50791623

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In Economics and Econometrics

In Global and Planetary Change

Citations in the corpus

Does temperature contain a stochastic trend? Evaluating conflicting statistical results (2010, methodology): “Indeed, the stationary effects of volcanic eruptions and El Nino events are modelled in the error correction model reported by Kaufmann et al. (2006).”