Heat Waves in the United States: Mortality Risk during Heat Waves and Effect Modification by Heat Wave Characteristics in 43 U.S. Communities
By G. Anderson, Michelle L. Bell. Environmental Health Perspectives, 2010
1,054 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Background Devastating health effects from recent heat waves, and projected increases in frequency, duration, and severity of heat waves from climate change, highlight the importance of understanding health consequences of heat waves. Objectives We analyzed mortality risk for heat waves in 43 U.S. cities (1987–2005) and investigated how effects relate to heat waves’ intensity, duration, or timing in season. Methods Heat waves were defined as ≥ 2 days with temperature ≥ 95th percentile for the community for 1 May through 30 September. Heat waves were characterized by their intensity, duration, and timing in season. Within each community, we estimated mortality risk during each heat wave compared with non-heat wave days, controlling for potential confounders. We combined individual heat wave effect estimates using Bayesian hierarchical modeling to generate overall effects at the community, regional, and national levels. We estimated how heat wave mortality effects were modified by heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, timing in season). Results Nationally, mortality increased 3.74% [95% posterior interval (PI), 2.29–5.22%] during heat waves compared with non-heat wave days. Heat wave mortality risk increased 2.49% for every 1°F increase in heat wave intensity and 0.38% for every 1-day increase in heat wave duration. Mortality increased 5.04% (95% PI, 3.06–7.06%) during the first heat wave of the summer versus 2.65% (95% PI, 1.14–4.18%) during later heat waves, compared with non-heat wave days. Heat wave mortality impacts and effect modification by heat wave characteristics were more pronounced in the Northeast and Midwest compared with the South. Conclusions We found higher mortality risk from heat waves that were more intense or longer, or those occurring earlier in summer. These findings have implications for decision makers and researchers estimating health effects from climate change.
Subfields: Endocrine and Autonomic Systems, Global and Planetary Change, Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/9d20025892aba099465298ef3c5327224b4d5377
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In Global and Planetary Change
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Citations in the corpus
- Assessment of the economic impacts of heat waves: A case study of Nanjing, China (2018, background): “…and morbidity and have confirmed that excess heat exposure induces excessive mortality and 99 morbidity rates in Japan (Honda et al, 2007), the US (Anderson and Bell, 2011, Weisskopf et al, 2002) 100 and Europe (Fouillet et al, 2006; Conti et al, 2005; Tataru et al, 2006; Michelozzi et al, 2009;…”
- Scale-dependent interactions between tree canopy cover and impervious surfaces reduce daytime urban heat during summer (2019, background): “The increased cooling effect of tree canopy cover on the hottest days, when human health (e.g., asthma sufferers) and energy impacts (e.g., air conditioning) are most consequential (5, 34 – 37), further underscores the importance of adaptation efforts.”