Tourism and Trade: Cointegration and Granger Causality Tests

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Has the tourism-led growth hypothesis been validated? A literature review (2016, background): “B rida et al. (14) Katircioglu (2009a) Applied Economics Annual (1960– 2005) Cyprus ARDL – Granger causality (VECM) Tourists arrivals, GDP, trade volume (TR) T Y T TR (15) Katircioglu (2009b) Acta Oeconomica Annual (1960– 2006) Malta ARDL – Granger causality (VECM) Tourists arrivals, GDP, exchange r”
A Spatial Econometric Approach to Model Spillover Effects in Tourism Flows (2012, background): “FDI is helpful in attracting business travelers and holiday travelers (Khan, Toh, and Chua 2005; Kulendran and Wilson 2000).”
A literature review on the tourism-led-growth hypothesis (2010, unknown): “…Croes and Vanegas, 2008); imports of industrial goods and machinery (Nowak et al., 2007); inward foreign direct investments (Tang et al., 2007); transport and communication, hotel and restaurants, advertising and promotion expenditure (Louca, 2006); exports and imports (Khan et al., 2005).”
A SVECM Analysis of the Relationship between International Tourism Arrivals, GDP and Trade in Italy (2013, background): “What is suggested is that international trade encourages tourism, for instance by means of more business travels occurring between countries and business people return to these countries for pleasure (Khan, Toh, and Chua 2005).”