Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update

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Economic Growth and Equity Returns (2005, neutral): “If dividend growth was subsequently higher, this wouldn’t be a problem, but Campbell and Shiller (2001) and Arnott and Asness (2003) report that dividend growth is subsequently lower when dividend yields are low in the U.S. Table 1 also reports the growth rate of real dividends per share for 16…”
On the Out-of-Sample Predictability of Stock Market Returns (2002, positive): “Although the terminology of irrational exuberance used by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan is arguable, many prominent financial economists, including Campbell and Shiller (1998), agreed that expected stock returns would be very low for the years to come.”
Growth, Corporate Profitability, and Value Creation (2002, methodology): “13 We briefly describe the company characteristics used as control variables and refer readers to the following papers for additional details and justifications for their use: Philips (1999), Campbell and Shiller (1998), Shin and Stulz (2000), and Opler, Pinkowitz, Stulz, and Williamson (1999). To m”
The long-run relationship between house prices and rents (2004, neutral): “Suppose that instead of the three-year horizon used in Equations (5) and (6), we were interested in a model of horizon s.”