China's changing economy: implications for its carbon dioxide emissions

By Fergus Green, N. Stern. 2016

267 citations recorded by the source corpus.

As China's government unveils the country's 13th Five Year Plan for economic development (2016–2020), this article takes stock of recent changes in China's economy and energy system since the turn of the century, and looks ahead to the likely trajectory of China's emissions over the next decade. It is now clear that the period 2000–2013 was a distinct and exceptional phase in China's developmental history, during which the very high levels of GHGs emitted were linked closely with the energy-intensive, heavy industry-based growth model pursued at that time. China is currently undergoing another major structural transformation – towards a new development model focused on achieving better-quality growth that is more sustainable and inclusive – and it is also grappling with the economic challenges associated with this transition. Data from 2014 and the first three quarters of 2015 illustrate the extent of these changes. Based on analysis of this data in light of the underlying changes occurring in China's economy and policy, this article provides an updated forecast of the Kaya components of energy CO2 emissions (GDP, energy/GDP and CO2/energy) over the next decade to 2025. It concludes that China's CO2 emissions from energy, if they grow at all, are likely to grow at a much slower rate than under the old economic model and are likely to peak at some point in the decade before 2025. Policy relevance The article suggests a number of important areas of Chinese policy that should be focused on to mitigate the risks and challenges that might otherwise delay the date for peak CO2 emissions. Our analysis and conclusions also have more general implications for Chinese and international climate policy. They suggest that China's international commitment to peak emissions ‘around 2030’ should be seen as a highly conservative upper limit from a government that prefers to under-promise and over-deliver. They also reinforce the virtue of a ‘dynamic’ approach to international climate cooperation, as envisaged under the Paris Agreement, whereby countries’ targets and policies are regularly updated in light of new information. The importance of macroeconomic analysis for emissions projections and climate policy development is also highlighted.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Environmental Engineering, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/9abd6c3f626bc0e94ad8f0d9f579819cf3801a60

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In Economics and Econometrics

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Citations in the corpus

• The 1.5°C target and coal sector transition: at the limits of societal feasibility (2018, background): “Declining coal consumption in China is a combined effect of the broader slowdown in economic growth and restructuring known as the ‘new normal’ (Green & Stern, 2017; Grubb et al., 2015), as well as efforts to improve air quality and mitigate climate change (Qi et al., 2016; Yang & Teng, 2016, 2017).”
• The threat to climate change mitigation posed by the abundance of fossil fuels (2018, unknown): “In this respect, there are indications that China may have entered a new development regime compared to the period between 2000 and 2013, which was characterized by high growth of heavy industry (Green & Stern, 2016); this also seems to agree with Figure 4(a).”
• Regional development and carbon emissions in China (2019, background): “Due to the slow-down in China's economic growth (Green and Stern, 2017), CO2 emissions in the country have plateaued since 2012 (Guan et al.”
• Regional determinants of China’s consumption-based emissions in the economic transition (2020, background): “Previous 71 studies realised the implication of China’s economic transition on the decarbonisation initiative and 72 concluded that China’s decarbonisation initiatives are able to benefit from the transition, via industrial 73 structure adjustment, cleaning up the energy mix, improving energy effici”
• China's “Exported Carbon” Peak: Patterns, Drivers, and Implications (2018, background): “One desirable consequence of this wider economic transformation has been a dramatic change in the trajectory of China’s total CO2 emissions since 2013/2014 (Green & Stern, 2017), which now appear to have plateaued after rising rapidly for decades prior.”
• Are the G20 economies making enough progress to meet their NDC targets? (2019, background): “Many studies included here have revised their projections downwards compared to their previous projections, but only a few studies indicate that CO2 emissions will peak before 2030 (Climate Action Tracker – lower end; (Green and Stern, 2017)).”
• Redefining green growth within planetary boundaries (2018, background): “Many are now expecting China to over-achieve on these targets (Green and Stern, 2016; Ng et al., 2016).”