Up to 1‐hour forecasting of radiation hazards from solar energetic ion events with relativistic electrons

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Solar flares, coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particle event characteristics (2016, methodology): “In contrast to the RelEASE system (Posner 2007), this is also a factor of large uncertainty for forecasting A42-p9 systems of SEP events that rely on near real-time data of SFs as they are either unable to identify an event (e.g., SF) at the back side of the Sun or underestimate its magnitude once…”
Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP): A New NASA Mission (2018, background): “Therefore, increases in electron flux can be used to predict the arrival time and intensity of solar energetic ions (Posner 2007).”
> 25 MeV Proton Events Observed by the High Energy Telescopes on the STEREO A and B Spacecraft and/or at Earth During the First ∼ Seven Years of the STEREO Mission (2014, background): “We note that Posner (2007) proposed using observations of near-relative electron onsets to give a ∼ 1 hour or more warning of the arrival of more hazardous protons and heavier ions with energies of 10s of MeV.”
Dynamics of the Earth’s Particle Radiation Environment (2009, methodology): “Also, a detailed description of a possible advanced forecast method was furnished, including the forecasting contingency matrix and the evaluation of false and missed warnings (see Table 3 of Posner 2007).”