A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways – Part 1: Water use
By N. Hanasaki, Shinichiro Fujimori, T. Yamamoto, S. Yoshikawa, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Y. Hijioka, M. Kainuma, Yuko Kanamori, Toshihiko Masui, Kiyoshi Takahashi and 1 more. 2012
196 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Abstract. A novel global water scarcity assessment for the 21st century is presented in a two-part paper. In this first paper, water use scenarios are presented for the latest global hydrological models. The scenarios are compatible with the socio-economic scenarios of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), which are a part of the latest set of scenarios on global change developed by the integrated assessment, the IAV (climate change impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment), and the climate modeling community. The SSPs depict five global situations based on substantially different socio-economic conditions during the 21st century. Water use scenarios were developed to reflect not only quantitative socio-economic factors, such as population and electricity production, but also key qualitative concepts such as the degree of technological change and overall environmental consciousness. Each scenario consists of five factors: irrigated area, crop intensity, irrigation efficiency, and withdrawal-based potential industrial and municipal water demands. The first three factors are used to estimate the potential irrigation water demand. All factors were developed using simple models based on a literature review and analysis of historical records. The factors are grid-based at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° and cover the whole 21st century in five-year intervals. Each factor shows wide variation among the different global situations depicted: the irrigated area in 2085 varies between 2.7 × 106 and 4.5 × 106 km2, withdrawal-based potential industrial water demand between 246 and 1714 km3 yr−1, and municipal water between 573 and 1280 km3 yr−1. The water use scenarios can be used for global water scarcity assessments that identify the regions vulnerable to water scarcity and analyze the timing and magnitude of scarcity conditions.
Subfields: Ocean Engineering, Water Science and Technology
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/99057a4bca9c7f259dcd57410a0009b4296fe3d4
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Citations in the corpus
- Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old (2014, unknown): “Meanwhile, climate modellers have already generated new climate projections based on the RCPs (e.g., Taylor et al. 2012), while some IAV modellers have produced initial impact estimates (e.g., Hanasaki et al. 2013; Portmann et al. 2013).”
- Water scarcity assessments in the past, present, and future (2017, unknown): “uk Liu, Junguo, Yang, Hong, Gosling, Simon N, Kummu, Matti, Flörke, Martina, Pfister, Stephan, Hanasaki, Naota, Wada, Yoshihide, Zhang, Xinxin, Zheng, Chunmiao, Alcamo, Joseph and Oki, Taikan (2017) Water scarcity assessments in the past, present, and future.”
- A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways – Part 2: Water availability and scarcity (2012, background): “Note that although Hanasaki et al. (2010) incorporated some additional subcomponents into H08, such as medium-sized reservoirs (reservoirs with storage capacity less than 1.0× 109 m3 capacity) and non-local and non-renewable blue water (hypothetical water sources to close the balance of local water…”
- Future global urban water scarcity and potential solutions (2021, methodology): “Among the solutions assessed, water-use ef fi ciency improvement, limiting population growth, and climate change mitigation were included in the simulation of water demand and water availability under the ScenarioMIP SSPs&RCPs simulations 34 .”
- Effect of Fertility Policy Changes on the Population Structure and Economy of China: From the Perspective of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (2019, background): “…been applied to assess the impacts of the changing environment on water scarcity, agriculture, flooding, and the sensitivities of future CO2 emissions to socioeconomic development (Arnell & Lloyd‐Hughes, 2014; Hanasaki et al., 2013; Marangoni et al., 2017; Schewe et al., 2014; Wiebe et al., 2015).”