Research, part of a Special Feature on Resilience and Vulnerability of Arid and Semi-Arid Social Ecological Systems Anticipating Vulnerability to Climate Change in Dryland Pastoral Systems: Using…

By A. Dougill, M. Reed. 2010

237 citations recorded by the source corpus.

It is vitally important to identify agroecosystems that may cease functioning because of changing climate or land degradation. However, identifying such systems is confounded on both conceptual and methodological grounds, especially in systems that are moving toward thresholds, a common trait of dryland environments. This study explores these challenges by analyzing how a range of external pressures affect the vulnerability of dryland pastoral systems in the Kalahari. This is achieved by employing dynamic systems modeling approaches to understand the pathways by which communities became vulnerable to drought. Specifically, we evaluate how external pressures have changed: (1) different agroecosystems' abilities to tolerate drought, i.e., ecosystem resilience; (2) rural communities' abilities to adapt to drought, mediated via their access to assets; and (3) the ability of institutions and policy interventions to play a role in mediating drought-related crises, i.e., socio-political governance. This is done by reanalyzing ecological and participatory research findings along with farm-scale livestock offtake data from across the Kalahari in Botswana. An iterative process was followed to establish narratives exploring how external drivers led to changes in agroecosystem resilience, access to assets, and the institutional capacity to buffer the system. We use "causal loop diagrams" and statistical dynamic system models to express key quantitative relationships and establish future scenarios to help define where uncertainties lie by showing where the system is most sensitive to change. We highlight how that greater sharing of land management knowledge and practices between private and communal land managers can provide 'win-win-win' benefits of reducing system vulnerability, increasing economic income, and building social capital. We use future scenario analyses to identify key areas for future studies of climate change adaptation across the Kalahari.

Subfields: Food Science, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/98dff3c3f03eb6a3a49e1b7ac8d3ff0f1b8bcf31

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Citations in the corpus

Synthesis, part of a Special Feature on Resilience and Vulnerability of Arid and Semi-Arid Social Ecological Systems Vulnerability of Worldwide Pastoralism to Global Changes and Interdisciplinary Strategies for Sustainable Pastoralism (2011, methodology): “By conceptualizing these three variables as the axes of a three-dimensional “vulnerability” coordination framework by referring to Fraser (2007) and Dougill et al. (2010), it is possible to compare different geographical regions and examine trends over time by studying the paths through the octant…”
Research, part of a Special Feature on Resilience and Vulnerability of Arid and Semi-Arid Social Ecological Systems China's Grassland Contract Policy and its Impacts on Herder Ability to Benefit in Inner Mongolia: Tragic Feedbacks (2011, background): “Theories of rights and ability to benefit (Ribot and Peluso 2003) are used to explain some of the mechanisms by which arid lands subsistence herders, and pastoral social-ecological systems, are disadvantaged and put at risk through privatization programs (Dougill et al. 2010).”
Challenges and opportunities in linking carbon sequestration, livelihoods and ecosystem service provision in drylands (2012, background): “Links to participatory monitoring approaches to gain local and indigenous knowledge can also feed into dynamic systems models (e.g. Dougill et al., 2010).”
Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review (2014, background): “In the Kalahari, land privatization policies have increased the vulnerability of poorer communal pastoralists, but increasing access to markets and improving the ability of these farmers to operate in a market economy could reduce their vulnerability (Dougill et al., 2010).”
Research, part of a Special Feature on Resilience and Vulnerability of Arid and Semi-Arid Social Ecological Systems Resilient or Vulnerable Livelihoods? Assessing Livelihood Dynamics and Trajectories in Rural Botswana (2010, background): “Pastoralism is an important component of many rural livelihood strategies within Botswana (Dougill et al. 2010).”
Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System (2015, background): “Land management and administrative restrictions can hamper the harvest and production of food sources following geographical shifts in where food sources are available (Dougill et al. 2010).”
“Vulnerability hotspots”: Integrating socio-economic and hydrological models to identify where cereal production may decline in the future due to climate change induced drought (2013, unknown): “…world where farmers may adapt to drought by planting larger areas, leaving fields fallow to conserve moisture, or reducing planting density to lessen moisture competition between plants (see Dougill et al., 2010 for a review of these kinds of adaptation strategies as related to pastoral Botswana).”
NEW HORIZONS FOR MANAGING THE ENVIRONMENT: A REVIEW OF COUPLED SOCIAL‐ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS MODELING (2012, methodology): “[2006], Dougill et al. [2010]) and Central Asia (Milner-Gulland et al.”