Climate change, tropical fisheries and prospects for sustainable development

By Vicky W. Y. Lam, E. Allison, J. Bell, J. Blythe, Wwl Cheung, T. Frölicher, M. Gasalla, U. R. Sumaila. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 2020

261 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Tropical fisheries substantially contribute to the well-being of societies in both the tropics and the extratropics, the latter through ‘telecoupling’ — linkages between distant human–natural systems. Tropical marine habitats and fish stocks, however, are vulnerable to the physical and biogeochemical oceanic changes associated with rising greenhouse gases. These changes to fish stocks, and subsequent impacts on fish production, have substantial implications for the UN Sustainable Development Goals. In this Review, we synthesize the effects of climate change on tropical marine fisheries, highlighting the socio-economic impacts to both tropical and extratropical nations, and discuss potential adaptation measures. Driven by ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and sea-level rise, the maximum catch potential of tropical fish stocks in some tropical exclusive economic zones is projected to decline by up to 40% by the 2050s under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, relative to the 2000s. Climate-driven reductions in fisheries production and alterations in fish-species composition will subsequently increase the vulnerability of tropical countries with limited adaptive capacity. Thus, given the billions of people dependent on tropical marine fisheries in some capacity, there is a clear need to account for the effects of climate change on these resources and identify practical adaptations when building climate-resilient sustainable-development pathways. Stressors arising from anthropogenic climate change threaten tropical fisheries and, in turn, those extratropical nations reliant on them. This Review discusses the impact of climate change on tropical fish stocks and catch potential, the corresponding telecoupling and subsequent adaptation measures. Tropical oceans will be where many of the first anthropogenic signals in physical and biogeochemical variables will exceed natural variability, with resulting impacts on socioecological systems. Maximum catch potential in some tropical exclusive economic zones is projected to decline by up to 40% by the 2050s under continued high greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change impacts on tropical fisheries will affect sustainable development of both local economies and communities, and extratropical regions through ‘telecoupling’ of human–natural systems such as seafood trade and distant-water fishing. The key impacts for developing tropical nations will be reduced capacity to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals related to food security (SDG2), poverty alleviation (SDG1) and economic growth (SDG8). Effective and practical adaptation solutions for both small-scale and industrial fisheries, built on the involvement of all appropriate stakeholders and supporting policies, are needed to sustain fisheries productivity in the tropics. Many substantial predicted biological and socio-economic impacts on tropical fisheries would be prevented if greenhouse gas-mitigation actions keep global atmospheric warming below 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Tropical oceans will be where many of the first anthropogenic signals in physical and biogeochemical variables will exceed natural variability, with resulting impacts on socioecological systems. Maximum catch potential in some tropical exclusive economic zones is projected to decline by up to 40% by the 2050s under continued high greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change impacts on tropical fisheries will affect sustainable development of both local economies and communities, and extratropical regions through ‘telecoupling’ of human–natural systems such as seafood trade and distant-water fishing. The key impacts for developing tropical nations will be reduced capacity to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals related to food security (SDG2), poverty alleviation (SDG1) and economic growth (SDG8). Effective and practical adaptation solutions for both small-scale and industrial fisheries, built on the involvement of all appropriate stakeholders and supporting policies, are needed to sustain fisheries productivity in the tropics. Many substantial predicted biological and socio-economic impacts on tropical fisheries would be prevented if greenhouse gas-mitigation actions keep global atmospheric warming below 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels.

Subfields: Ecology, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/98022fe9326fffa24f888e9039f3cf57d66de830