Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China
By Joseph T. Wu, K. Leung, M. Bushman, N. Kishore, R. Niehus, P. M. De Salazar, Benjamin J. Cowling, Marc Lipsitch, G. Leung. Nature Medicine, 2020
1,322 citations recorded by the source corpus.
As of 29 February 2020 there were 79,394 confirmed cases and 2,838 deaths from COVID-19 in mainland China. Of these, 48,557 cases and 2,169 deaths occurred in the epicenter, Wuhan. A key public health priority during the emergence of a novel pathogen is estimating clinical severity, which requires properly adjusting for the case ascertainment rate and the delay between symptoms onset and death. Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4% (0.9–2.1%), which is substantially lower than both the corresponding crude or naïve confirmed case fatality risk (2,169/48,557 = 4.5%) and the approximator1 of deaths/deaths + recoveries (2,169/2,169 + 17,572 = 11%) as of 29 February 2020. Compared to those aged 30–59 years, those aged below 30 and above 59 years were 0.6 (0.3–1.1) and 5.1 (4.2–6.1) times more likely to die after developing symptoms. The risk of symptomatic infection increased with age (for example, at ~4% per year among adults aged 30–60 years). An estimation of the clinical severity of COVID-19, based on the data available so far, can help to inform the public health response during the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.
Subfields: Epidemiology, Infectious Diseases, Modeling and Simulation
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/9274b188a75638717774889cadfdf82c0a976f3f
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Citations in the corpus
- Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in Italy (2020, background): “observed transmission dynamics to estimate clinical severity [25]; stochastic transmission models have been also considered, see for instance [26, 27].”
- Exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 mortality in the United States: A nationwide cross-sectional study (2020, background): “Early data from China suggests that a majority of COVID-19 deaths occurred in adults aged ≥60 years and among persons with serious underlying health conditions.(1,2) Preliminary analyses of outcomes among COVID-19 patients in the United States largely agree, reporting the highest fatality rates in p”
- How simulation modelling can help reduce the impact of COVID-19 (2020, background): “The risk of developing symptomatic disease and the risk of death following symptoms increases with age (Wu et al., 2020).”
- Remdesivir, lopinavir, emetine, and homoharringtonine inhibit SARS-CoV-2 replication in vitro (2020, background): “1 times more likely to die from infection than those aged 30–59 years (Wu et al., 2020).”
- COVID-19 antibody seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California (2020, background): “6 However, the magnitude of that factor is highly uncertain.”
- Misinformation During a Pandemic (2020, neutral): “If true, this could be of particular concern, not only due to Fox’s large viewer base but also because its viewers are disproportionately elderly — a population among whom the coronavirus may be up to ten times more fatal than among the general population (Wu et al., 2020).”