A possible declining trend for worldwide innovation
By Jon W. Huebner. 2005
137 citations recorded by the source corpus.
A comparison is made between a model of technology in which the level of technology advances exponentially without limit and a model with an economic limit. The model with an economic limit best fits data obtained from lists of events in the history of science and technology as well as the patent history in the United States. The rate of innovation peaked in the year 1873 and is now rapidly declining. We are at an estimated 85% of the economic limit of technology, and it is projected that we will reach 90% in 2018 and 95% in 2038.
Subfields: Biomedical Engineering, Economics and Econometrics
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/90836cc68b5b92196cb2bcaa13283c02acce194e
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In Biomedical Engineering
In Economics and Econometrics
Citations in the corpus
- Rising complexity and falling explanatory power in ecology (2014, background): “The low hanging fruit hypothesis has also been proposed as an explanation for trends across other scientific disciplines (Huebner 2005; Arbesman 2011).”
- Democratization is the Driving Force for Technological and Economic Change (2010, unknown): “Many interesting new questions arise for economic philosophy, such as [3]:”
- Driving Forces of Technological Change: The Relation between Population Growth and Technological Innovation-Analysis of the Optimal Interaction Across Countries (2014, background): “This study can provide a further interpretation of Huebner’s approach ([27], p.”