Climate change impact on China food security in 2050
By Liming Ye, W. Xiong, Zhengguo Li, Peng Yang, Wenbin Wu, Guixia Yang, Yijiang Fu, J. Zou, Zhongxin Chen, Eric Van Ranst and 1 more. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 2012
135 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Climate change is now affecting global agriculture and food production worldwide. Nonetheless the direct link between climate change and food security at the national scale is poorly understood. Here we simulated the effect of climate change on food security in China using the CERES crop models and the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios including CO2 fertilization effect. Models took into account population size, urbanization rate, cropland area, cropping intensity and technology development. Our results predict that food crop yield will increase +3–11 % under A2 scenario and +4 % under B2 scenario during 2030–2050, despite disparities among individual crops. As a consequence China will be able to achieve a production of 572 and 615 MT in 2030, then 635 and 646 MT in 2050 under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2030 the food security index (FSI) will drop from +24 % in 2009 to −4.5 % and +10.2 % under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2050, however, the FSI is predicted to increase to +7.1 % and +20.0 % under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, but this increase will be achieved only with the projected decrease of Chinese population. We conclude that 1) the proposed food security index is a simple yet powerful tool for food security analysis; (2) yield growth rate is a much better indicator of food security than yield per se; and (3) climate change only has a moderate positive effect on food security as compared to other factors such as cropland area, population growth, socio-economic pathway and technology development. Relevant policy options and research topics are suggested accordingly.
Subfields: Ecology, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Water Science and Technology
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/9036d39cbaaf66396c0498c0daf37051b92e64a1
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Citations in the corpus
- Impacts of land use, population, and climate change on global food security (2020, background): “Previous studies in China also show projected decreases in cropland area, yet these climate scenarios show climate change to have a largely positive effect on crop yields, which combined with a plateauing population, exert a great impact on future trends of food security (Ye et al., 2013).”