NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability
By Jianping Li, Cheng Sun, F. Jin. 2013
292 citations recorded by the source corpus.
The twentieth century Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature (NHT) is characterized by a multidecadal warming‐cooling‐warming pattern followed by a flat trend since about 2000 (recent warming hiatus). Here we demonstrate that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is implicated as a useful predictor of NHT multidecadal variability. Observational analysis shows that the NAO leads both the detrended NHT and oceanic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) by 15–20 years. Theoretical analysis illuminates that the NAO precedes NHT multidecadal variability through its delayed effect on the AMO due to the large thermal inertia associated with slow oceanic processes. An NAO‐based linear model is therefore established to predict the NHT, which gives an excellent hindcast for NHT in 1971–2011 with the recent flat trend well predicted. NHT in 2012–2027 is predicted to fall slightly over the next decades, due to the recent NAO decadal weakening that temporarily offsets the anthropogenically induced warming.
Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/8c8efe46efa2680e5971b925db57622baff89a64
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Citations in the corpus
- Forcing of the wintertime atmospheric circulation by the multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic ocean (2014, background): “Unlike the recent study of Li et al (2013), we find that at the multidecadal time scale, the AMO–NAO relationship is stronger when the AMO leads the NAO.”
- A delayed oscillator model for the quasi-periodic multidecadal variability of the NAO (2015, unknown): “Li et al. (2013) identified the lead time between the NAO and AMO (NAO leading by 15–20 years) using observations.”
- The Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Climate through Its Influence on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (2016, unknown): “Variations in the AMOC are viewed as an important driver of the observed Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, which in turn influences hemispheric climate (Zhang et al. 2007; Chylek et al. 2009; Sutton and Dong 2012; Li et al. 2013; Steinman et al. 2015).”