The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios

By Warwick J. McKibbin, Roshen Fernando. Asian Economic Papers, 2020

1,886 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Abstract COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. The evolution of the disease and its economic impacts are highly uncertain, making formulation of appropriate macroeconomic policy responses challenging. This paper explores seven plausible scenarios of COVID-19 and the macroeconomic outcomes using a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model. The results demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run. Economic costs could be significantly avoided with greater investment in public health systems in all economies, particularly in economies where health care systems are less developed and population density is high.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Modeling and Simulation

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/8c7a6324b6cae9b896f1914bec9662178586b7f6

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Citations in the corpus

A counterfactual economic analysis of Covid-19 using a threshold augmented multi-country model (2020, neutral): “McKibbin and Fernando (2020) explore the global macroeconomic effects of different scenarios of how Covid-19 might evolve in the year ahead using a hybrid DSGE/CGE model.”
A critical analysis of the impacts of COVID-19 on the global economy and ecosystems and opportunities for circular economy strategies (2020, positive): “Fernandes (2020) and McKibbin and Fernando (2020) reported thatthe socio-economic impact of COVID-19 will be felt for many months to come.”
The economics of COVID-19: initial empirical evidence on how family firms in five European countries cope with the corona crisis (2020, positive): “Stock markets have crashed dramatically (Baker et al., 2020), with economists consistently forecasting harsh economic recessions (Baldwin and Weder di Mauro, 2020; McKibbin and Fernando, 2020).”
Estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty (2020, positive): “These estimates draw on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of McKibbin and Fernando (2020).”
COVID-19: stock market reactions to the shock and the stimulus (2020, positive): “…the adverse impact of COVID-19 on the stock markets is more severe in emerging markets because these markets have less advanced fiscal and monetary policy infrastructures, lower liquidity, greater information asymmetry and their health-care systems are less developed (McKibbin and Fernando 2020).”
Green Recovery Policies for the COVID-19 Crisis: Modelling the Impact on the Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2020, positive): “McKibbin and Fernando (2020) provide preliminary estimates of the economic cost of the COVID-19 crisis by using a global hybrid of a CGE model and a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model.”
The COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Implications for Rural Economies (2020, positive): “Based on experiences of past pandemics, export activity will drop as supply side restrictions increase and global demand falls [16].”
Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective (2020, positive): “McKibbin & Fernando (2020) consider (among other shocks) reduced labor supply due to mortality, morbidity due to infection, and morbidity due to the need to care for affected family members.”
The Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on the Global Economy: Emphasis on Poverty Alleviation and Economic Growth (2021, positive): “Inadvertently, the COVID-19 pandemic has a spillover effect on the global economy, as identified by McKibbin and Fernando (2020) which is likely to manifest in the preceding years.”
The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Stock Markets: An Empirical Analysis of World Major Stock Indices (2020, positive): “…the disease as the death rate, severity of the disease, the response from policymakers, and individual behavior are unknown (Baldwin & Mauro, 2020; McKibbin & Fernando, 2020; OECD, 2020)this paper explores seven different scenarios of how COVID-19 might evolve in the coming year using a modelling…”