Threshold behaviour and final outcome of an epidemic on a random network with household structure
By Frank G. Ball, David Sirl, Pieter Trapman. Advances in Applied Probability, 2008
93 citations recorded by the source corpus.
In this paper we consider a stochastic SIR (susceptible→infective→removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within ‘households’ (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal size) and along the edges of a random graph describing additional social contacts. Heuristically motivated branching process approximations are described, which lead to a threshold parameter for the model and methods for calculating the probability of a major outbreak, given few initial infectives, and the expected proportion of the population who are ultimately infected by such a major outbreak. These approximate results are shown to be exact as the number of households tends to infinity by proving associated limit theorems. Moreover, simulation studies indicate that these asymptotic results provide good approximations for modestly sized finite populations. The extension to unequal-sized households is discussed briefly.
Subfields: Modeling and Simulation, Statistical and Nonlinear Physics
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/85b90c7436dc3ea19e5984e2eb4a8cf973d70f04
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In Statistical and Nonlinear Physics
Citations in the corpus
- Random Graphs and Complex Networks (2016, background): “The configuration model with household structure was investigated in [21, 22] in the context of epidemics on social networks.”