Fluctuations in Uncertainty

By Nicholas Bloom. 2014

1,982 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/8455d05a56f9aaf7f91ef88842d1c37d83aad154

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Economics and Econometrics

1. Efrem Castelnuovo
2. Giovanni Caggiano
3. Y. Gorodnichenko
4. Michael Weber
5. J. Figueres
6. Steven J. Davis
7. Olivier Coibion
8. Maksim Belitski

Citations in the corpus

• Entrepreneurial uncertainty during the Covid-19 crisis: Mapping the temporal dynamics of entrepreneurial finance (2020, background): “While some proxies used for measuring uncertainty are “far from perfect” (Bloom, 2014, p. 172), the crucial importance of entrepreneurial finance for start-ups and innovative SMEs (Hall and Lerner, 2010) makes this a powerful barometer of how uncertainty has affected entrepreneurial activity.”
• Why Has US Policy Uncertainty Risen since 1960 (2014, background): “This rise in economic policy uncertainty is potentially damaging to US growth (Bloom, 2013).”
• Policy uncertainty and corporate credit spreads (2020, positive): “It is well-documented that credit spreads are counter-cyclical (Gulen and Ion (2016); Bloom (2014); and Baker et al. (2016)).”
• Policy uncertainty, investment, and the cost of capital (2018, positive): “Bachmann et al. (2013), Scotti (2016), Bloom (2014), and Jurado et al. (2015) document that macroeconomic forecasts tend to be noisier, forecasters are less confident about their forecasts, and their forecasts are more optimistic than actual outcomes during recession periods.”
• News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact (2020, positive): “Disagreement is a widely used measure of uncertainty ( Bloom, 2014 ).”
• The pandemic and economic policy uncertainty (2020, background): “For example, corporations under high EPU during COVID-19 have chosen to be more conservative, or have been forced to become so due to market conditions (Bloom, 2009, 2014).”
• Estimating the Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks at the Zero Lower Bound (2017, positive): “Bloom (2014) o¤ers a survey of the recent empirical and theoretical literature.”
• Economic policy uncertainty, financial markets and probability of US recessions (2014, methodology): “2 plots the average marginal effects of the IEPUs on the recession probabilities, along with the confidence bands, computed with the robust standard errors fromEstrella andRodrigues (1998). This figure illustrates the significance of the IEPUs.”
• Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth (2017, background): “(2014) and Bloom (2014) relating to businesscycle uncertainty.”