Substituting the End for the Whole: Why Voters Respond Primarily to the Election‐Year Economy

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Sources of Bias in Retrospective Decision Making: Experimental Evidence on Voters’ Limitations in Controlling Incumbents (2012, background): “Put simply, voters might rely on total performance had they kept track of it, but because they do not, they instead rely on the election-year economy (see also Healy and Lenz 2012).”
How Conditioning on Posttreatment Variables Can Ruin Your Experiment and What to Do about It (2018, background): “Healy and Lenz (2014, 37), for instance, exclude respondents who failed to correctly answer questions that were part of the treatment in a survey experiment.”
Beliefs about Climate Beliefs: The Importance of Second-Order Opinions for Climate Politics (2017, background): “Of these invited workers, 1001 had previously indicated that they believed climate 57e.g. Healy and Lenz 2014; Malhotra and Margalit 2010; Kertzer and Brutger 2015; Iyengar and Westwood 2014 58We used the MTurkR package to recruit and manage respondents: See Leeper 2015 for details 59Berinsky,…”
Preference Change in Competitive Political Environments (2016, background): “In both cases, individuals seek to “simplify a complicated evaluation problem by substituting end conditions for overall condition” (Healy & Lenz 2014, p. 32).”