Further improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)

By Mark DeMaria, M. Mainelli, L. Shay, J. Knaff, J. Kaplan. 2005

675 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Oceanography

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/7c9ecacbd6f5fdd41fbde360a378da4b5df1f29f

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Atmospheric Science

1. William Cotton
2. R. Rogers
3. Jun A. Zhang
4. P. Reasor
5. M. Montgomery
6. T. Dunkerton
7. Zhuo Wang
8. J. Vialard

In Oceanography

1. William Cotton
2. R. Rogers
3. Jun A. Zhang
4. J. Vialard
5. P. Reasor
6. M. Montgomery
7. M. Lengaigne
8. Zhuo Wang

Citations in the corpus

• Convective-Scale Structure and Evolution during a High-Resolution Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification (2010, background): “While track forecasts have improved markedly in the past 20 years, progress in intensity forecasting has lagged significantly behind (Rogers et al. 2006; DeMaria et al. 2005).”
• Aerosol Effects on Microstructure and Intensity of Tropical Cyclones (2012, methodology): “The models used were the dynamically based Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL; Bender et al. 2007) and the statistically based Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS; DeMaria et al. 2005) models.”
• The effect of translation speed upon the intensity of tropical cyclones over the tropical ocean (2012, neutral): “This difference has resulted in a relatively modest improvement in the operational forecast of TC intensity in recent decades, whereas the prediction of TC movement has improved to a much greater extent [e.g., DeMaria et al. , 2005; Cangialosi and Franklin , 2011].”
• The Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle of Mature Hurricanes (2014, positive): “…the storms in the 10-yr dataset: 1) 200–850-hPa vertical wind shear # 7.5 m s 2 1 [determined from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS; DeMaria et al. 2005)]; 2) storm center $ 300 km from land; 3 and 3) Saffir–Simpson storm intensity of category 2 or higher ( $ 43m s 2 1 ).”
• Assessing the oceanic control on the amplitude of sea surface cooling induced by tropical cyclones (2012, background): “While OHC only brought modest 5% improvement to TC intensity statistical forecast schemes [DeMaria et al., 2005; Mainelli et al., 2008], a metric like CI, which properly captures the ocean propensity to modulate TC-induced surface cooling (and hence the storm growth rate), could be tested in TC…”
• Multiscale Structure and Evolution of Hurricane Earl (2010) during Rapid Intensification (2015, methodology): “Figure 2 shows environmental parameters derived from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS; DeMaria et al. 2005).”
• Recent Developments in the Fluid Dynamics of Tropical Cyclones (2017, neutral): “Track forecasts have improved significantly in the past 25 years, but progress in intensity forecasting has shown comparatively little improvement ( DeMaria et al. 2005 ; Rogers and Coauthors 2006).”
• Tropical cyclogenesis in a tropical wave critical layer: easterly waves (2008, background): “SST is but one of several factors explaining the PDF and its variation (DeMaria et al., 2005) so it is not merely a question of how PI varies with SST.”
• A Simplified Dynamical System for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction (2009, methodology): “These formulas were developed in a storm-relative coordination system, so a fraction of the storm translational speed is added to the Vmpi estimate using the equation developed by Schwerdt et al. (1979).”