Tourism Demand Modelling And Forecasting: Modern Econometric Approaches

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The Tourism Forecasting Competition (2011, methodology): “(5) In most cases, the random walk process is adequate for capturing the parameter changes in various economic models (see, for example, Bohara and Sauer, 1992; Kim, 1993; Greenslade and Hall, 1996; Song and Witt, 2000).”
Cointegration analysis of German and British tourism demand for Greece (2004, background): “Nevertheless, the econometric models that explain the structure of tourist arrivals by a specific origin country can also combine present and past values of the other economic variables with tourist arrivals (Witt and Witt 1995, Song and Witt 2000, Dritsakis and Athanasiadis 2000).”
Tourism demand modelling and forecasting—A review of recent research (2008, methodology): “…error correction model (ECM), the vector autoregressive (VAR) model, and the time varying parameter (TVP) models, have emerged as the main forecasting methods in the current tourism demand forecasting literature (the technical illustration of these methods could be found in Song and Witt, 2000).”