Crop Yield Prediction Using Deep Neural Networks

By Saeed Khaki, Lizhi Wang. Frontiers in Plant Science, 2019

757 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Crop yield is a highly complex trait determined by multiple factors such as genotype, environment, and their interactions. Accurate yield prediction requires fundamental understanding of the functional relationship between yield and these interactive factors, and to reveal such relationship requires both comprehensive datasets and powerful algorithms. In the 2018 Syngenta Crop Challenge, Syngenta released several large datasets that recorded the genotype and yield performances of 2,267 maize hybrids planted in 2,247 locations between 2008 and 2016 and asked participants to predict the yield performance in 2017. As one of the winning teams, we designed a deep neural network (DNN) approach that took advantage of state-of-the-art modeling and solution techniques. Our model was found to have a superior prediction accuracy, with a root-mean-square-error (RMSE) being 12% of the average yield and 50% of the standard deviation for the validation dataset using predicted weather data. With perfect weather data, the RMSE would be reduced to 11% of the average yield and 46% of the standard deviation. We also performed feature selection based on the trained DNN model, which successfully decreased the dimension of the input space without significant drop in the prediction accuracy. Our computational results suggested that this model significantly outperformed other popular methods such as Lasso, shallow neural networks (SNN), and regression tree (RT). The results also revealed that environmental factors had a greater effect on the crop yield than genotype.

Subfields: Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Genetics, Plant Science

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/7a7e2cf62f7ed45a009a06baacc815979b72bf4d

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

1. Sotirios V. Archontoulis
2. Lizhi Wang
3. Saeed Khaki

In Genetics

1. Sotirios V. Archontoulis
2. Lizhi Wang
3. Saeed Khaki

In Plant Science

1. Sotirios V. Archontoulis
2. Lizhi Wang
3. Saeed Khaki
4. Arpit Jain
5. Abhinav Sharma
6. Prateek Gupta
7. V. Chowdary

Citations in the corpus

• A CNN-RNN Framework for Crop Yield Prediction (2019, methodology): “The DFNN model had 9 layers and 50 neurons in each layer as in Khaki and Wang (2019).”
• Machine Learning Applications for Precision Agriculture: A Comprehensive Review (2021, background): “Wang et al. [19] deployed soft sensors based on ELM for the measurement of nutrient solution composition in the soilless cultivation method.”