Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI‐ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5

By Marco A. Giorgetta, Johann Jungclaus, C. Reick, S. Legutke, J. Bader, M. Böttinger, V. Brovkin, T. Crueger, M. Esch, K. Fieg and 29 more. 2013

1,634 citations recorded by the source corpus.

The new Max‐Planck‐Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM) is used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in a series of climate change experiments for either idealized CO2‐only forcing or forcings based on observations and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The paper gives an overview of the model configurations, experiments related forcings, and initialization procedures and presents results for the simulated changes in climate and carbon cycle. It is found that the climate feedback depends on the global warming and possibly the forcing history. The global warming from climatological 1850 conditions to 2080–2100 ranges from 1.5°C under the RCP2.6 scenario to 4.4°C under the RCP8.5 scenario. Over this range, the patterns of temperature and precipitation change are nearly independent of the global warming. The model shows a tendency to reduce the ocean heat uptake efficiency toward a warmer climate, and hence acceleration in warming in the later years. The precipitation sensitivity can be as high as 2.5% K−1 if the CO2 concentration is constant, or as small as 1.6% K−1, if the CO2 concentration is increasing. The oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon increases over time in all scenarios, being smallest in the experiment forced by RCP2.6 and largest in that for RCP8.5. The land also serves as a net carbon sink in all scenarios, predominantly in boreal regions. The strong tropical carbon sources found in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 experiments are almost absent in the RCP4.5 experiment, which can be explained by reforestation in the RCP4.5 scenario.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/79b1d1fad2ed63b222cf399617e8667d334205ce

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Atmospheric Science

In Global and Planetary Change

Citations in the corpus

An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles (2020, neutral): “1) (Giorgetta et al., 2013).”
A Critical Review of Sustainable Energy Policies for the Promotion of Renewable Energy Sources (2020, background): “[3], one of the worst-case scenarios reflects a doubling of CO2 and shows a rise in mean global temperature of about 3–4 ◦C by 2100, and it is predicted that global average temperature in 2100 would actually fall between 1.”
The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability (2019, methodology): “The equilibrium climate sensitivity is hence lowered from 3.4 K in CMIP5 to 2.8 K in MPI-GE, as calculated using linear extrapolation from 150 years of an abrupt 4 xCO2 experiment (Andrews et al., 2012).”
Arctic sea‐ice evolution as modeled by Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth system model (2013, background): “…focused contribution, the contributions that describe the atmospheric model component ECHAM6 [Stevens et al., 2013] the modeled climate variability [Giorgetta et al., 2013], the tuning of MPI-ESM [Mauritsen et al., 2012], the impact of sea-ice melt ponds [Roeckner et al., 2012], and the ocean…”
Developments in the MPI‐M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI‐ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO2 (2019, methodology): “A bug in the sea ice melt pond scheme, relevant only in coupled model simulations, was identified and corrected (Roeckner et al., 2012): In the MPI-ESM (Giorgetta et al., 2013), melt ponds were accidentally ignored in the calculation of sea ice melt.”