Model validation and predictive capability for the thermal challenge problem

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Uncertainty quantification and management in additive manufacturing: current status, needs, and opportunities (2017, methodology): “Commonly studied quantitative validation metrics include mean-based methods [114, 115], hypothesis testing-based methods [113], area metric [116], and distance or reliability metric [112, 117].”
A comparative study of probability estimation methods for reliability analysis (2011, methodology): “Similar to the U-pooling, the area metric also measures the area between the approximate and true CDFs and can be expressed as (Ferson et al. 2008)”
Imprecise probabilities in engineering analyses (2013, unknown): “In [113] a validation metric is de ned in terms of the area between a predicted distribution from a probabilistic model and the empirical distribution embodied by relevant sample data.”
A comprehensive framework for verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification in scientific computing (2011, background): “A key aspect of this approach is that model form uncertainty is treated as epistemic [13].”