Climate volatility and poverty vulnerability in Tanzania

By S. Ahmed, N. Diffenbaugh, Thomas W. Hertel, David B. Lobell, Navin Ramankutty, A. Rios, P. Rowhani. 2009

178 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Climate models generally indicate that climate volatility may rise in the future, severely affecting agricultural productivity through greater frequency of yield-diminishing climate extremes, such as droughts. For Tanzania, where agricultural production is sensitive to climate, changes in climate volatility could have significant implications for poverty. This study assesses the vulnerability of Tanzania’s population to poverty to changes in climate variability between the late 20th century and early this century. Future climate scenarios with the largest increases in climate volatility are projected to make Tanzanians increasingly vulnerable to poverty through its impacts on the production of staple grains, with as many as 90,000 additional people, representing 0.26 percent of the population, entering poverty in the median case. Extreme poverty-increasing outcomes are also found to be greater in the future under certain climate scenarios. In the 20th century, the greatest predicted increase in poverty was equal to 880,000 people, while in the 21st century, the highest possible poverty increase was equal to 1.17 million people (approximately 3.4 percent of the population). The results suggest that the potential impacts of changes in climate volatility and climate extremes can be significant for poverty in Sub-Saharan African countries like Tanzania.

Subfields: Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Sociology and Political Science, Soil Science

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/7530ae6f0dc73edf23d14232d0894b4d58627d7b

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

1. Uris Lantz C. Baldos
2. Thomas W. Hertel
3. Z. Kubik
4. M. Maurel

In Sociology and Political Science

1. Uris Lantz C. Baldos
2. Z. Kubik
3. M. Maurel
4. H. Lilleør
5. Thomas W. Hertel
6. K. V. D. Broeck

In Soil Science

1. Uris Lantz C. Baldos
2. Thomas W. Hertel
3. Z. Kubik
4. M. Maurel
5. H. Lilleør
6. K. V. D. Broeck

Citations in the corpus

• PERCEPTIONS AND ADAPTATIONS OF BEEKEEPERS AND HONEY HUNTERS TO CLIMATE CHANGE: THE CASE OF THE COMMUNES OF NATITINGOU AND TANGUIETA IN NORTHWEST OF BENIN (2012, unknown): “Therefore, changes in climate have critical implications for economies of developing countries (Ahmed et al., 2011).”
• The role of international trade in managing food security risks from climate change (2015, background): “Ahmed et al. (2011) pointed out that government export bans can also limit favorable opportunities created by climate change for some of the world's poorest countries.”
• Economic drivers of migration and climate change in LDCs (2011, background): “(2011) and Ahmed et al. (2011) point to negative impacts of increased climate variability in Tanzania on crop production and poverty vulnerability, respectively.”
• Weather Shocks, Agricultural Production and Migration: Evidence from Tanzania (2016, methodology): “Ahmed et al. (2011) model a spillover effect that this decrease in crop yields will have on other sectors, and especially on food prices, leading to an increase in poverty headcount.”