Successful prediction of the consecutive IOD in 2006 and 2007

By Jing‐Jia Luo, Swadhin K. Behera, Yukio Masumoto, Hirofumi Sakuma, Toshio Yamagata. 2008

158 citations recorded by the source corpus.

During 2006 and 2007 boreal fall, two consecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events occurred unprecedentedly regardless of the respective El Niño and La Niña condition in the Pacific. These two pIOD events had large climate impacts, particularly in the Eastern Hemisphere. Experimental forecasts using a coupled model show that the two pIOD events can be predicted 3 or 4 seasons ahead. The evolution of the 2006 pIOD is consistent with the large‐scale IOD dynamics, and therefore, it has long‐lead predictability owing to the oceanic subsurface memory in the South Indian Ocean. The 2007 pIOD event, however, is rather weak and peculiar without a long memory from the off‐equatorial ocean. The model has less predictability for this weak event. The results show that seasonal climate anomalies in the Eastern Hemisphere associated with the two pIOD events can be predicted 1–2 seasons ahead. This indicates potential societal benefits of IOD prediction.

Subfields: Global and Planetary Change, Oceanography

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/74c5e2df0de99f948b011f73f3487c6b8b9d1e1c

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Citations in the corpus

Indian Ocean Dipole Response to Global Warming: Analysis of Ocean–Atmospheric Feedbacks in a Coupled Model* (2009, background): “As a recent example of decadal modulation, two consecutive positive IOD events took place in 2006 and 2007 with El Niñ o and La Niñ a in the Pacific, respectively (Behera et al. 2008; Luo et al. 2008).”
An Assessment of the CFS Real-Time Seasonal Forecasts (2010, background): “1b), which was also well predicted with another coupled model (Luo et al. 2008).”
Seasonal climate forecasting (2010, background): “…such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, e.g. Lamb and Peppler, 1987; Hurrell et al., 2003), the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern (Frankignoul and Sennechael, 2007), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD, Luo et al., 2008) also provide regional predictive potential on the seasonal time scale.”