Self-exciting point process models of civilian deaths in Iraq

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Learning Triggering Kernels for Multi-dimensional Hawkes Processes (2013, background): “Introduction Real world interactions between multiple entities, such as earthquake aftershocks (Vere-Jones, 1970), civilian death in conflicts (Lewis et al., 2011) and user behaviors in social network (Mitchell and Cates, 2010), often exhibit the self-exciting and mutually-exciting property.”
Gang rivalry dynamics via coupled point process networks (2014, methodology): “One method for validating the model consists of constructing a baseline model for comparison and then using a model selection criterion, such as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) [16], to compare the competing models.”