OBSERVING THE NEXT GALACTIC SUPERNOVA

By S. Adams, C. Kochanek, J. Beacom, M. Vagins, Krzysztof Zbigniew Stanek. 2013

179 citations recorded by the source corpus.

No supernova (SN) in the Milky Way has been observed since the invention of the optical telescope, instruments for other wavelengths, neutrino detectors, or gravitational wave observatories. It would be a tragedy to miss the opportunity to fully characterize the next one. To aid preparations for its observations, we model the distance, extinction, and magnitude probability distributions of a successful Galactic core-collapse supernova (ccSN), its shock breakout radiation, and its massive star progenitor. We find, at very high probability (≃ 100%), that the next Galactic SN will easily be detectable in the near-IR and that near-IR photometry of the progenitor star very likely (≃ 92%) already exists in the Two Micron All Sky Survey. Most ccSNe (98%) will be easily observed in the optical, but a significant fraction (43%) will lack observations of the progenitor due to a combination of survey sensitivity and confusion. If neutrino detection experiments can quickly disseminate a likely position (∼3°), we show that a modestly priced IR camera system can probably detect the shock breakout radiation pulse even in daytime (64% for the cheapest design). Neutrino experiments should seriously consider adding such systems, both for their scientific return and as an added and internal layer of protection against false triggers. We find that shock breakouts from failed ccSNe of red supergiants may be more observable than those of successful SNe due to their lower radiation temperatures. We review the process by which neutrinos from a Galactic ccSN would be detected and announced. We provide new information on the EGADS system and its potential for providing instant neutrino alerts. We also discuss the distance, extinction, and magnitude probability distributions for the next Galactic Type Ia supernova (SN Ia). Based on our modeled observability, we find a Galactic ccSN rate of per century and a Galactic SN Ia rate of per century for a total Galactic SN rate of per century is needed to account for the SNe observed over the last millennium, which implies a Galactic star formation rate of M☉ yr−1.

Subfields: Astronomy and Astrophysics, Nuclear and High Energy Physics

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/7257a8fc4f91159534c32366a9912b3fb848cf07

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Astronomy and Astrophysics

In Nuclear and High Energy Physics

Citations in the corpus

The search for failed supernovae with the Large Binocular Telescope: first candidates (2014, background): “…on neutrinos (e.g., Lien et al. 2010; Mühlbeier et al. 2013) or gravitational waves (e.g., Ott 2009; Kotake 2011) with the difficulty that they could only be detected in the Milky Way with event timescales of centuries for a Galactic SN rate of 1 per 50 to 100 years (see Adams et al. 2013).”
THE LANDSCAPE OF THE NEUTRINO MECHANISM OF CORE-COLLAPSE SUPERNOVAE: NEUTRON STAR AND BLACK HOLE MASS FUNCTIONS, EXPLOSION ENERGIES, AND NICKEL YIELDS (2014, background): “…& 0.5 based on direct supernova detection, estimates of supernova production in the Galaxy, star formation rate or diffuse neutrino background (e.g. Kochanek et al. 2008; Kochanek 2014b; Smartt 2009; Horiuchi et al. 2011; Adams et al. 2013; Nakazato 2013; Clausen et al. 2014; Mathews et al. 2014).”
Physical Processes in the Interstellar Medium (2014, background): “Our Galaxy forms new stars at a rate of ṀSF ∼ 2−4M yr−1 (e.g. Naab & Ostriker, 2006; Adams et al., 2013).”
Characterizing the Gravitational Wave Signal from Core-collapse Supernovae (2018, background): “First, the detection of the neutrino burst will reveal the time and sky position of the supernova, thus reducing the false alarm rate for the GW signal and the number of free parameters needed for template-based searches (Adams et al. 2013; Nakamura et al. 2016).”
The Gravitational Wave Signal from Core-collapse Supernovae (2018, background): “Given that the estimate for the galactic CCSNe rate is 3.2+7.3−2.6 per century (Li et al. 2011; Adams et al. 2013), and the youngest known galactic CCSN remnant is ∼100 years old (Reynolds et al. 2008; Borkowski et al. 2017), chances are high that we will not have long to wait.”
What can be learned from a future supernova neutrino detection (2017, background): “[82] find that the historical rate of core-collapse supernovae in the Galaxy is 3.”