Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions

By Antoine Guisan, R. Tingley, J. Baumgartner, Ilona Naujokaitis‐Lewis, P. Sutcliffe, A. Tulloch, T. Regan, Lluís Brotons, E. McDonald‐Madden, C. Mantyka‐Pringle and 13 more. Ecology Letters, 2013

1,965 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly proposed to support conservation decision making. However, evidence of SDMs supporting solutions for on-ground conservation problems is still scarce in the scientific literature. Here, we show that successful examples exist but are still largely hidden in the grey literature, and thus less accessible for analysis and learning. Furthermore, the decision framework within which SDMs are used is rarely made explicit. Using case studies from biological invasions, identification of critical habitats, reserve selection and translocation of endangered species, we propose that SDMs may be tailored to suit a range of decision-making contexts when used within a structured and transparent decision-making process. To construct appropriate SDMs to more effectively guide conservation actions, modellers need to better understand the decision process, and decision makers need to provide feedback to modellers regarding the actual use of SDMs to support conservation decisions. This could be facilitated by individuals or institutions playing the role of ‘translators’ between modellers and decision makers. We encourage species distribution modellers to get involved in real decision-making processes that will benefit from their technical input; this strategy has the potential to better bridge theory and practice, and contribute to improve both scientific knowledge and conservation outcomes.

Subfields: Ecological Modeling, Ecology, Nature and Landscape Conservation

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/7174e1a2f1e940cbb345a47bc81108bd91cd0dfa

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Citations in the corpus

Mechanistic and Correlative Models of Ecological Niches (2015, background): “The popularity of correlational models Correlative modelling has become extremely popular, since the idea was first explored in the 1980s and 1990s, with hundreds of papers appearing every year that use this general approach (Guisan et al. 2013).”
Paintings predict the distribution of species, or the challenge of selecting environmental predictors and evaluation statistics (2018, neutral): “As it is now a standard tool to inform conservation decisions (Guisan et al., 2013), it is critical to ensure that key aspects of the modelling workflow, such as variable selection and model performance assessment, can be adequately controlled and evaluated.”
eDNA Sampler: A fully integrated environmental DNA sampling system (2018, background): “However, management actions stemming from the information gathered in aquatic species surveys are only as good as the data on which they are based (Guisan et al., 2013).”
How to make more out of community data? A conceptual framework and its implementation as models and software. (2017, background): “For example, a scientist working with species distribution maps may wish to predict the ranges of all species based on the data points available (Guisan et al. 2013).”
Selecting predictors to maximize the transferability of species distribution models: lessons from cross‐continental plant invasions (2017, background): “As SDMs are 124 currently widely used to assess global change threats to biodiversity (Guisan et al., 2013), assessing 125 their transferability is a crucial task.”
Comparing sample bias correction methods for species distribution modeling using virtual species (2021, positive): “One such methodology to quantify species distributions is species distribution modeling (SDM), also referred to as ecological niche modeling (ENM), which is being used with increasing frequency in land-use planning and conservation (Schwartz 2012, Guisan et al. 2013).”
Assessing the Relevance of Herbarium Collections as Tools for Conservation Biology (2017, background): “Even if the main objective of modelling studies may not be conservation per se, their results can be highly informative for decision taking, especially on issues of land management (Guisan et al., 2013).”
Present and future distribution of three aquatic plants taxa across the world: decrease in native and increase in invasive ranges (2017, methodology): “(Broennimann et al. 2007; Guisan et al. 2013), especially when establishing predictive scenarios, since such models have generally been proven to”
Biodiversity responses to climate and land-use change: A historical perspective (2015, neutral): “guide conservation actions, especially in biodiversity-rich areas (Guisan et al., 2013).”